Trabzonspor 3-0 Gaziantep FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Gaziantep FK travel to Medical Park Stadyumu to take on Trabzonspor. The game is scheduled for Monday 22 November 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Trabzonspor stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 0L across 5 games at Medical Park Stadyumu this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Gaziantep FK have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gaziantep FK's away record: 0W 1D 5L from 6 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.17 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.17 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Trabzonspor have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games).
Gaziantep FK in-play tendencies (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 75% versus Gaziantep FK 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 67% | Gaziantep FK 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.98 xG and Gaziantep FK 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.113 / defence 1.189 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.670 / defence 1.497. League average goals — home 1.185 / away 1.129. Gaziantep FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.497 — this is suppressing Trabzonspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Trabzonspor games / 12 Gaziantep FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 62% | Draw 21% | Gaziantep FK 16%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | Gaziantep FK 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 100% | Gaziantep FK 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Medical Park Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 22 Nov 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 62% | Draw 21% | Gaziantep FK 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 51% | xG Trabzonspor 1.98 / Gaziantep FK 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.113 / def 1.189 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.670 / def 1.497 | league avg home 1.185 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Gaziantep FK xG
51%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 22 November 2021 at Medical Park Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Trabzonspor 3 - 0 Gaziantep FK.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK being played?
The match is being played at Medical Park Stadyumu.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK part of?
Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 62% chance of winning, Gaziantep FK a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Trabzonspor and Gaziantep FK will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Gaziantep FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Trabzonspor and Gaziantep FK in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Gaziantep FK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Trabzonspor's attack at 1.11x the league average against Gaziantep FK's defence at 1.50x — combine the two and it projects 1.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gaziantep FK's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
62%
1.60
21%
4.74
16%
6.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.87
0.90
Gaziantep FK xG
1.60
62%
Home win
4.74
21%
Draw
6.09
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
14%
7.21
Win to Nil
25%
3.93
2%
43.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 10.0 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Gaziantep FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 0.90 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 12 outings, Trabzonspor have picked up 2.50 PPG on a 9W 3D 0L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gaziantep FK's form line: 4W 3D 5L from 12 games, 1.25 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-W. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Trabzonspor are the form team by 1.25 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gaziantep FK.
Venue Form
On home soil, Trabzonspor have posted 2.20 PPG from 5 outings (3W 2D 0L).
On the road, Gaziantep FK have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 away games — 0.20 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gaziantep FK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Trabzonspor are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Gaziantep FK are on 1.17 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Gaziantep FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Gaziantep FK in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 9W 3D 0L in their last 12 games (2.50 PPG), while Gaziantep FK have gone 4W 3D 5L in their last 12 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Gaziantep FK away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.20 PPG; Gaziantep FK away: 0.20 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Gaziantep FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Gaziantep FK in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Nov 2021, when Trabzonspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Gaziantep FK specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Trabzonspor
3
Draws
0
Gaziantep FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Gaziantep FK?
From 9 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 6, Gaziantep FK have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Gaziantep FK last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Gaziantep FK 1-2 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Gaziantep FK?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Trabzonspor at 100%, Gaziantep FK at 40%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Trabzonspor and 40% for Gaziantep FK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Gaziantep FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Gaziantep FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Trabzonspor's games and 40% of Gaziantep FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Trabzonspor's matches and 40% of Gaziantep FK's.
Do Trabzonspor and Gaziantep FK tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Gaziantep FK in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Trabzonspor run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Gaziantep FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Gaziantep FK 3-0 at Medical Park Stadyumu, Regular Season - 13, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.98 xG and Gaziantep FK 0.90 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Trabzonspor beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gaziantep FK landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.11 / defence 1.19 against Gaziantep FK attack 0.67 / defence 1.50, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 62% | Draw 21% | Gaziantep FK 16%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 67%, Gaziantep FK 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.25. Form held, and they took the win. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.