Trabzonspor 2-0 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fenerbahçe at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Trabzonspor host Fenerbahçe at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 December 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Trabzonspor — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D D W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor's home record at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi: 4W 6D 0L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Fenerbahçe have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Fenerbahçe have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 3.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Fenerbahçe — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Trabzonspor have won 1, Fenerbahçe 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Trabzonspor trading profile (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Fenerbahçe trading profile (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trabzonspor 65% and Fenerbahçe 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 53% | Fenerbahçe 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.14 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 0.988 / defence 0.811 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.368 / defence 0.810. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.447. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack strength of 1.368 — the away xG of 1.61 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Trabzonspor games / 51 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 27% | Draw 26% | Fenerbahçe 48%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 3.70 | Draw 3.85 | Fenerbahçe 2.08. Fenerbahçe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Trabzonspor 60% | Fenerbahçe 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Dec 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 27% | Draw 26% | Fenerbahçe 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Trabzonspor 1.14 / Fenerbahçe 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 0.988 / def 0.811 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.368 / def 0.810 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.447 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Fenerbahçe xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 24 December 2022 at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Trabzonspor 2 - 0 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 27% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe?
Record (2 meetings): Trabzonspor 1W | Draws 1 | Fenerbahçe 0W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-D-D. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Trabzonspor's attack at 0.99x the league average against Fenerbahçe's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fenerbahçe's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
27%
3.76
26%
3.87
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.75
1.61
Fenerbahçe xG
3.76
27%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
20%
4.98
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
5%
18.72
15%
6.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 10.3 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 1.61 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Trabzonspor come into this having played 51 games, going 29W 17D 5L for 2.04 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-D. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fenerbahçe sit at 2.00 PPG from 51 outings (30W 12D 9L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trabzonspor on 2.04 PPG, Fenerbahçe on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Trabzonspor's home form reads 14W 10D 0L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Fenerbahçe have taken 1.88 points per game from 24 outings (13W 6D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.14 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Fenerbahçe in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 29W 17D 5L in their last 51 games (2.04 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 30W 12D 9L in their last 51 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.17 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fenerbahçe go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2025, when Fenerbahçe won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Fenerbahçe specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Trabzonspor
1
Draws
6
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe?
From 10 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 3, Fenerbahçe have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Trabzonspor 2-3 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 58%, Fenerbahçe 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Trabzonspor) and 58% (Fenerbahçe).
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Fenerbahçe in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Fenerbahçe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Trabzonspor's games and 58% of Fenerbahçe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 58% of Fenerbahçe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trabzonspor cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Fenerbahçe.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Fenerbahçe 2-0 at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 15, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.14 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.61 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Trabzonspor beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fenerbahçe landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 0.99 / defence 0.81 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.37 / defence 0.81, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 27% | Draw 26% | Fenerbahçe 48%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Trabzonspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 53%, Fenerbahçe 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trabzonspor 2.04 PPG, Fenerbahçe 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.