Trabzonspor 1-1 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor meet at Papara Park in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Trabzonspor (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Trabzonspor have posted 6W 3D 1L at Papara Park — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Papara Park.
Alanyaspor have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Trabzonspor's 2.10 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Alanyaspor's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Trabzonspor 4W, Alanyaspor 3W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2025, ended 4–3 with Trabzonspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Trabzonspor half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Alanyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 51% versus Alanyaspor 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 47% | Alanyaspor 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.85 xG and Alanyaspor 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.207 / defence 0.716 | Alanyaspor attack 0.987 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.295. Trabzonspor's defence rating of 0.716 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Trabzonspor games / 47 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 57% | Draw 26% | Alanyaspor 16%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.75 | Draw 3.85 | Alanyaspor 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (57%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 40% | Alanyaspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 57% | Draw 26% | Alanyaspor 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Trabzonspor 1.85 / Alanyaspor 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.207 / def 0.716 | Alanyaspor attack 0.987 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Alanyaspor xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 8 November 2025 at Papara Park.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor?
Trabzonspor 1 - 1 Alanyaspor.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 57% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 16% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor?
Record (8 meetings): Trabzonspor 4W | Draws 1 | Alanyaspor 3W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Trabzonspor's attack at 1.21x the league average against Alanyaspor's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.85 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Alanyaspor's attack (0.99x) against Trabzonspor's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
57%
1.74
26%
3.80
16%
6.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.77
0.92
Alanyaspor xG
1.74
57%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
6.17
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
16%
6.38
Win to Nil
23%
4.34
3%
39.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 10.6 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 0.92 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Trabzonspor come into this having played 47 games, going 20W 15D 12L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 1.26 PPG from 47 outings (15W 14D 18L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Trabzonspor against 1.26 for Alanyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Trabzonspor's home form reads 14W 7D 3L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.04 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.60 PPG overall — Trabzonspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Alanyaspor have taken 0.92 points per game from 24 outings (5W 7D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.15 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 20W 15D 12L in their last 47 games (1.60 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 15W 14D 18L in their last 47 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Alanyaspor away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.04 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Alanyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Alanyaspor in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Alanyaspor won 5-0 on 9 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trabzonspor have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Trabzonspor
3
Draws
3
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 4, Alanyaspor have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Alanyaspor 1-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 50%, Alanyaspor 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Trabzonspor) and 50% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Alanyaspor in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Alanyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 58% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 50% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Papara Park, Regular Season - 12, as Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.85 xG and Alanyaspor 0.92 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Trabzonspor fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.21 / defence 0.72 against Alanyaspor attack 0.99 / defence 1.18, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 57% | Draw 26% | Alanyaspor 16%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 47%, Alanyaspor 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trabzonspor 1.60 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.