Sivasspor 2-1 Yeni Malatyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sivasspor at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sivasspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Yeni Malatyaspor travel to Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu to take on Sivasspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 February 2022, 10:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sivasspor stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sivasspor's form when playing at home: 3W 7D 0L across 10 games at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Yeni Malatyaspor — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Yeni Malatyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Sivasspor carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sivasspor, 0 for Yeni Malatyaspor and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2021, ended 1–0 with Sivasspor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Sivasspor in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Yeni Malatyaspor in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 9% of games (away games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 65% versus Yeni Malatyaspor 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 48% | Yeni Malatyaspor 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.15 xG and Yeni Malatyaspor 0.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.956 / defence 0.987 | Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.455 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.128 / away 1.092. Data: 24 Sivasspor games / 23 Yeni Malatyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 52% | Draw 33% | Yeni Malatyaspor 15%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 1.92 | Draw 3.03 | Yeni Malatyaspor 6.67. Sivasspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 27% | Total xG 1.65. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.65 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 73% — Yeni Malatyaspor's lower xG of 0.49 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 27%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sivasspor are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sivasspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.65 combined xG gives a 23% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 27% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sivasspor 60% | Yeni Malatyaspor 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 52% | Draw 33% | Yeni Malatyaspor 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 27% | xG Sivasspor 1.15 / Yeni Malatyaspor 0.49 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 0.956 / def 0.987 | Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.455 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.128 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
0.49
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
27%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor kick off?
Sivasspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Sivasspor 2 - 1 Yeni Malatyaspor.
Where is Sivasspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor part of?
Sivasspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 52% chance of winning, Yeni Malatyaspor a 15% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our model estimates a 27% probability that both Sivasspor and Yeni Malatyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Yeni Malatyaspor?
Record (1 meetings): Sivasspor 1W | Draws 0 | Yeni Malatyaspor 0W.
What form are Sivasspor and Yeni Malatyaspor in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Yeni Malatyaspor (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sivasspor's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Yeni Malatyaspor's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Yeni Malatyaspor's attack versus Sivasspor's defence, projects 0.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 20.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (20.7%), 2-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
52%
1.94
33%
2.99
15%
6.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
22.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
19.3%
Draw
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
1.65
0.49
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
1.94
52%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
6.69
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
27%
BTTS Yes
3.66
73%
BTTS No
1.38
Clean Sheet
61%
1.63
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
32%
3.16
5%
21.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.3 | 9.5 | 2.3 | 0.4 | – | – |
| 1 | 22.3 | 10.9 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 6.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.9%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Yeni Malatyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Sivasspor and 0.49 for Yeni Malatyaspor, a combined total of 1.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sivasspor's recent record stands at 7W 10D 6L from 23 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Yeni Malatyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 4W 4D 15L across 23 games — 0.70 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Yeni Malatyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sivasspor by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Yeni Malatyaspor heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sivasspor have managed 3W 8D 0L from 11 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Yeni Malatyaspor's away record stands at 2W 1D 8L across 11 trips, a 0.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sivasspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sivasspor are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Yeni Malatyaspor are on 0.78 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Blended
Yeni Malatyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Yeni Malatyaspor in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 7W 10D 6L in their last 23 games (1.35 PPG), while Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 4W 4D 15L in their last 23 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Yeni Malatyaspor away?
Sivasspor's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.55 PPG; Yeni Malatyaspor away: 0.64 PPG.
Have Sivasspor or Yeni Malatyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sivasspor have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Yeni Malatyaspor in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sivasspor and Yeni Malatyaspor runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Sivasspor
0
Draws
0
Yeni Malatyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Yeni Malatyaspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 2, Yeni Malatyaspor have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Yeni Malatyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2022, when Sivasspor 2-1 Yeni Malatyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Yeni Malatyaspor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Yeni Malatyaspor see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Sivasspor 64% BTTS, Yeni Malatyaspor 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Sivasspor and 9% for Yeni Malatyaspor.
On the defensive side: Sivasspor keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Yeni Malatyaspor in 82%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Yeni Malatyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Yeni Malatyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Sivasspor's recent matches and 0% of Yeni Malatyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sivasspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Sivasspor's recent games and 9% of Yeni Malatyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Yeni Malatyaspor tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Yeni Malatyaspor in 36% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sivasspor edge out Yeni Malatyaspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor beat Yeni Malatyaspor 2-1 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 25, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.15 xG and Yeni Malatyaspor 0.49 xG, a combined 1.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Sivasspor beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 0.96 / defence 0.99 against Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.46 / defence 1.07, drawn from 24/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 52% | Draw 33% | Yeni Malatyaspor 15%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 27% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 48%, Yeni Malatyaspor 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Yeni Malatyaspor's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sivasspor arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.70. That form edge translated into the three points. Yeni Malatyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.