Sivasspor 1-1 Gaziantep FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sivasspor at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sivasspor vs Gaziantep FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 5 as Sivasspor welcome Gaziantep FK to Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 September 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sivasspor stand at 0W 2D 2L from 4 Süper Lig matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Sivasspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Gaziantep FK have recorded 1W 1D 2L from 4 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Gaziantep FK have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Gaziantep FK's 1.00 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Sivasspor's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Sivasspor in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Gaziantep FK in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 75% versus Gaziantep FK 25%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sivasspor 50% | Gaziantep FK 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.35 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.897 / defence 1.256 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.765 / defence 1.298. League average goals — home 1.162 / away 1.083. Gaziantep FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.298 — this is suppressing Sivasspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Sivasspor games / 4 Gaziantep FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 44% | Draw 27% | Gaziantep FK 29%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Gaziantep FK 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sivasspor are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gaziantep FK (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sivasspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sivasspor 75% | Gaziantep FK 25%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Gaziantep FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 44% | Draw 27% | Gaziantep FK 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Sivasspor 1.35 / Gaziantep FK 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 0.897 / def 1.256 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.765 / def 1.298 | league avg home 1.162 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Gaziantep FK xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Gaziantep FK kick off?
Sivasspor vs Gaziantep FK kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Sivasspor 1 - 1 Gaziantep FK.
Where is Sivasspor vs Gaziantep FK being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Gaziantep FK part of?
Sivasspor vs Gaziantep FK is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 44% chance of winning, Gaziantep FK a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sivasspor and Gaziantep FK will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Gaziantep FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Gaziantep FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sivasspor and Gaziantep FK in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 0W-2D-2L in 4 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D. Gaziantep FK (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sivasspor's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Gaziantep FK's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Gaziantep FK's attack versus Sivasspor's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
44%
2.27
27%
3.67
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.39
1.04
Gaziantep FK xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
7%
13.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.9 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Gaziantep FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Sivasspor and 1.04 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sivasspor come into this having played 4 games, going 0W 2D 2L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Sivasspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Gaziantep FK sit at 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L), a run that reads L-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Gaziantep FK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Sivasspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Sivasspor are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Gaziantep FK are on 1.00 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Gaziantep FK in 25%.
Defensively: Gaziantep FK in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Early Season
Gaziantep FK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Gaziantep FK in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 games (0.50 PPG), while Gaziantep FK have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
Have Sivasspor or Gaziantep FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sivasspor have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Gaziantep FK in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Feb 2022, when Gaziantep FK won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sivasspor's record when hosting Gaziantep FK specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Sivasspor
3
Draws
2
Gaziantep FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Gaziantep FK?
From 8 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 3, Gaziantep FK have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Gaziantep FK last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Gaziantep FK 2-1 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Gaziantep FK?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Gaziantep FK see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 75%, Gaziantep FK 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sivasspor) and 25% (Gaziantep FK).
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK in 50%; Gaziantep FK in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Gaziantep FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Gaziantep FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Sivasspor's recent matches and 25% of Gaziantep FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sivasspor vs Gaziantep FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sivasspor's recent games and 25% of Gaziantep FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Gaziantep FK tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Gaziantep FK in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sivasspor and Gaziantep FK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor and Gaziantep FK finished level at 1-1 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 5, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.35 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.04 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 0.90 / defence 1.26 against Gaziantep FK attack 0.77 / defence 1.30, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 44% | Draw 27% | Gaziantep FK 29%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 50%, Gaziantep FK 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Gaziantep FK arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.