Samsunspor vs Rizespor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Rizespor at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Samsunspor vs Rizespor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu plays host to Samsunspor versus Rizespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Sunday 31 January 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Samsunspor (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Samsunspor's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Samsunspor are significantly better at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Rizespor have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rizespor away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Rizespor are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Samsunspor 3W, Rizespor 3W, 1D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2026, ended 2–0 with Samsunspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Samsunspor — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Rizespor — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 59% versus Rizespor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 57% | Rizespor 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.12 xG and Rizespor 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.801 / defence 1.419 | Rizespor attack 0.963 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.253. Data: 44 Samsunspor games / 44 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 25% | Draw 24% | Rizespor 51%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 4.00 | Draw 4.17 | Rizespor 1.96. Rizespor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rizespor are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rizespor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Samsunspor 70% | Rizespor 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jan 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 25% | Draw 24% | Rizespor 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Samsunspor 1.12 / Rizespor 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 0.801 / def 1.419 | Rizespor attack 0.963 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Rizespor xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Samsunspor vs Rizespor kick off?
Samsunspor vs Rizespor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 31 January 2027 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
Where is Samsunspor vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Rizespor part of?
Samsunspor vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 25% chance of winning, Rizespor a 51% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Samsunspor and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Samsunspor vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Rizespor?
Record (7 meetings): Samsunspor 3W | Draws 1 | Rizespor 3W.
What form are Samsunspor and Rizespor in?
Samsunspor (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Rizespor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Samsunspor's attack at 0.80x the league average against Rizespor's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rizespor's attack (0.96x) against Samsunspor's defence (1.42x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
25%
4.04
24%
4.19
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
2.83
1.71
Rizespor xG
4.04
25%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
18%
5.55
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
4%
22.40
17%
5.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 10.1 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Samsunspor and 1.71 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Samsunspor come into this having played 44 games, going 14W 13D 17L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rizespor sit at 1.18 PPG from 44 outings (13W 13D 18L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Samsunspor against 1.18 for Rizespor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Samsunspor's home form reads 7W 8D 7L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Rizespor have taken 1.09 points per game from 22 outings (5W 9D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Samsunspor are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.30 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Samsunspor and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 14W 13D 17L in their last 44 games (1.25 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 13W 13D 18L in their last 44 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Rizespor away?
Samsunspor's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.32 PPG; Rizespor away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Samsunspor won 3-0 on 23 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Samsunspor have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Rizespor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Samsunspor
1
Draws
3
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Rizespor?
From 7 meetings on record, Samsunspor have won 3, Rizespor have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Rizespor 0-2 Samsunspor.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 54%, Rizespor 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Samsunspor) and 59% (Rizespor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Samsunspor have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Samsunspor play Rizespor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Samsunspor's games and 64% of Rizespor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Samsunspor vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Samsunspor's matches and 59% of Rizespor's.
Do Samsunspor and Rizespor tend to score early?
Samsunspor have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.