Samsunspor 0-0 Kocaelispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Samsunspor at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Samsunspor vs Kocaelispor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Samsunspor and Kocaelispor meet at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 January 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Samsunspor (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Samsunspor's home record at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Kocaelispor have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Kocaelispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kocaelispor away from home this season: 1W 2D 5L from 8 away games — 0.62 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.62 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Kocaelispor arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Samsunspor 1W, Kocaelispor 0W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 1–0 with Samsunspor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Samsunspor half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Kocaelispor half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 67% versus Kocaelispor 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Samsunspor 39% | Kocaelispor 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.23 xG and Kocaelispor 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.857 / defence 0.923 | Kocaelispor attack 0.740 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 1.298. Data: 54 Samsunspor games / 18 Kocaelispor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 40% | Draw 37% | Kocaelispor 23%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 2.50 | Draw 2.70 | Kocaelispor 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.12 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Samsunspor at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Kocaelispor (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Samsunspor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Samsunspor 60% | Kocaelispor 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Kocaelispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 40% | Draw 37% | Kocaelispor 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 46% | xG Samsunspor 1.23 / Kocaelispor 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 0.857 / def 0.923 | Kocaelispor attack 0.740 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.316 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Kocaelispor xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Samsunspor vs Kocaelispor kick off?
Samsunspor vs Kocaelispor kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 24 January 2026 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Kocaelispor?
Samsunspor 0 - 0 Kocaelispor.
Where is Samsunspor vs Kocaelispor being played?
The match is being played at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Kocaelispor part of?
Samsunspor vs Kocaelispor is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Kocaelispor?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 40% chance of winning, Kocaelispor a 23% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Kocaelispor?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Samsunspor and Kocaelispor will score (BTTS).
Will Samsunspor vs Kocaelispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Kocaelispor?
Record (1 meetings): Samsunspor 1W | Draws 0 | Kocaelispor 0W.
What form are Samsunspor and Kocaelispor in?
Samsunspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Kocaelispor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Samsunspor's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Kocaelispor's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — Kocaelispor's attack (0.74x) against Samsunspor's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 54/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
40%
2.49
37%
2.69
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
2.12
0.89
Kocaelispor xG
2.49
40%
Home win
2.69
37%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
17%
6.05
7%
15.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 10.7 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.1 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Kocaelispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Kocaelispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Samsunspor and 0.89 for Kocaelispor, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Kocaelispor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 18 outings, Samsunspor have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 6W 8D 4L record — D-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kocaelispor's form line: 6W 5D 7L from 18 games, 1.28 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-L. The sample for Kocaelispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Samsunspor against 1.28 for Kocaelispor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Samsunspor have posted 1.25 PPG from 8 outings (2W 4D 2L).
On the road, Kocaelispor have gone 1W 2D 5L from 8 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kocaelispor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Samsunspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Samsunspor are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Kocaelispor are on 0.89 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Samsunspor have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 18 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Blended
Kocaelispor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Samsunspor and Kocaelispor in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 6W 8D 4L in their last 18 games (1.44 PPG), while Kocaelispor have gone 6W 5D 7L in their last 18 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Kocaelispor away?
Samsunspor's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.25 PPG; Kocaelispor away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Samsunspor or Kocaelispor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Samsunspor have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Kocaelispor in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Samsunspor
1
Draws
0
Kocaelispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Kocaelispor?
From 2 meetings on record, Samsunspor have won 1, Kocaelispor have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Kocaelispor last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Samsunspor 0-0 Kocaelispor.
Who has won more matches between Samsunspor and Kocaelispor?
Samsunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Samsunspor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Kocaelispor see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 50%, Kocaelispor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Samsunspor and 38% for Kocaelispor.
On the defensive side: Samsunspor keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Samsunspor have failed to score in 38% of games; Kocaelispor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Kocaelispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Samsunspor play Kocaelispor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 50% of Kocaelispor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Samsunspor vs Kocaelispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Samsunspor's recent games and 38% of Kocaelispor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Samsunspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu, Regular Season - 19, as Samsunspor and Kocaelispor drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.23 xG and Kocaelispor 0.89 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Samsunspor fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Kocaelispor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 0.86 / defence 0.92 against Kocaelispor attack 0.74 / defence 1.09, drawn from 54/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 40% | Draw 37% | Kocaelispor 23%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 39%, Kocaelispor 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Kocaelispor's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Samsunspor 1.44 PPG, Kocaelispor 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Samsunspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Kocaelispor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.