Samsunspor 1-2 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis

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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Samsunspor and Beşiktaş meet at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 13). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 November 2023 at 13:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Samsunspor have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Samsunspor's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 2L across their last 5 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Samsunspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Beşiktaş (all games): 6W 0D 4L across their last 10 — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Beşiktaş away from home: 6W 0D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On a straight form reading, Beşiktaş are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Samsunspor's last 5 home games and Beşiktaş's last 10 away games) — Samsunspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Beşiktaş in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Trading

Samsunspor half-time and goal-timing data (last 12 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.

Beşiktaş half-time and goal-timing data (last 12 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 50% versus Beşiktaş 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 42% | Beşiktaş 42%). Note also that Beşiktaş surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Samsunspor recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 43% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.37 xG and Beşiktaş 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.827 / defence 1.123 | Beşiktaş attack 1.244 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.195. Beşiktaş have an above-average attack rating of 1.244, which lifts their away xG to 1.67. Data: built from Samsunspor's last 12 games and Beşiktaş's last 48.

Result probabilities: Samsunspor 30% | Draw 26% | Beşiktaş 43%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 3.31 | Draw 3.79 | Beşiktaş 2.30. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.37 / 1.67) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Beşiktaş are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Samsunspor's last 5 home games and Beşiktaş's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Samsunspor 60% (last 5 home games) | Beşiktaş 60% (last 10 away games).

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