Rizespor 3-4 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rizespor vs Trabzonspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rizespor host Trabzonspor at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 26 October 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rizespor stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rizespor have posted 5W 1D 4L at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Rizespor are significantly better at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Trabzonspor are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Rizespor have won 4, Trabzonspor 4, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Trabzonspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Rizespor in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 52% versus Trabzonspor 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 57% | Trabzonspor 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 0.91 xG and Trabzonspor 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.710 / defence 1.268 | Trabzonspor attack 1.086 / defence 0.820. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 1.174. Rizespor's attack strength of 0.710 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Rizespor games / 42 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 21% | Draw 25% | Trabzonspor 54%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 4.76 | Draw 4.00 | Trabzonspor 1.85. Trabzonspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Rizespor 40% | Trabzonspor 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 26 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 21% | Draw 25% | Trabzonspor 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Rizespor 0.91 / Trabzonspor 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.710 / def 1.268 | Trabzonspor attack 1.086 / def 0.820 | league avg home 1.555 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Trabzonspor xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 26 October 2026 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Trabzonspor?
Rizespor 3 - 4 Trabzonspor.
Where is Rizespor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 21% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 54% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Rizespor and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Trabzonspor?
Record (8 meetings): Rizespor 4W | Draws 0 | Trabzonspor 4W.
What form are Rizespor and Trabzonspor in?
Rizespor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Trabzonspor (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 0.71x the league average against Trabzonspor's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Rizespor's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 0-2 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
21%
4.76
25%
4.03
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.52
1.62
Trabzonspor xG
4.76
21%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
20%
5.04
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
4%
23.97
22%
4.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 13.0 | 10.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.62 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, Rizespor have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 13W 12D 17L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor's form line: 25W 10D 7L from 42 games, 2.02 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Trabzonspor are the form team by 0.81 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Rizespor.
Venue Form
On home soil, Rizespor have posted 1.35 PPG from 20 outings (8W 3D 9L).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 11W 4D 5L from 20 away games — 1.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rizespor are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.88 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor in 62%.
Last 42 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 13W 12D 17L in their last 42 games (1.21 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 25W 10D 7L in their last 42 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Trabzonspor's away record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.35 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.85 PPG.
Have Rizespor or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 26 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Trabzonspor go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Rizespor's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Rizespor
0
Draws
5
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Trabzonspor?
From 9 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 4, Trabzonspor have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2026, when Rizespor 3-4 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 40%, Trabzonspor 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Rizespor and 65% for Trabzonspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rizespor have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Rizespor's games and 70% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rizespor vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Rizespor's matches and 65% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Rizespor and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Rizespor 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Rizespor 3-4 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 9, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 0.91 xG and Trabzonspor 1.62 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Rizespor beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Trabzonspor outscored their 1.62 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.71 / defence 1.27 against Trabzonspor attack 1.09 / defence 0.82, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 21% | Draw 25% | Trabzonspor 54%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 57%, Trabzonspor 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.21. Form held, and they took the win. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.