Pendikspor 0-2 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pendikspor at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Pendikspor face Trabzonspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Pendikspor welcome Trabzonspor to Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 26). Kick-off is Sunday 18 February 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Pendikspor stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Pendikspor's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Trabzonspor — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Trabzonspor away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pendikspor 1.30 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Pendikspor, 1 for Trabzonspor and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2023, ended Pendikspor 1–2 Trabzonspor — a Trabzonspor win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Pendikspor trading profile (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Trabzonspor trading profile (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pendikspor 68% and Trabzonspor 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pendikspor 52% | Trabzonspor 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pendikspor 1.46 xG and Trabzonspor 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pendikspor attack 1.018 / defence 1.160 | Trabzonspor attack 1.062 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.176. Data: built from Pendikspor's last 25 games and Trabzonspor's last 60.
Result probabilities: Pendikspor 35% | Draw 30% | Trabzonspor 35%. Fair-value odds: Pendikspor 2.82 | Draw 3.34 | Trabzonspor 2.88. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 35% to win, with the draw at 30%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.46 / 1.45) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Pendikspor 35% and Trabzonspor 35%, with the draw at 30%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Pendikspor's last 10 home games and Trabzonspor's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Pendikspor 50% (last 10 home games) | Trabzonspor 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pendikspor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 26 | Venue: Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 18 February 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pendikspor 35% | Draw 30% | Trabzonspor 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Pendikspor 1.46 / Trabzonspor 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Pendikspor attack 1.018 / def 1.160 | Trabzonspor attack 1.062 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Pendikspor and Trabzonspor level at 35% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Pendikspor xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Trabzonspor xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pendikspor vs Trabzonspor FAQs
What time does Pendikspor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Pendikspor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 18 February 2024 at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Pendikspor vs Trabzonspor?
Pendikspor 0 - 2 Trabzonspor.
Where is Pendikspor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu.
What competition is Pendikspor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Pendikspor vs Trabzonspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 26) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Pendikspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Pendikspor a 35% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Pendikspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Pendikspor and Trabzonspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Pendikspor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pendikspor's attack at 1.02x the league average against Trabzonspor's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Pendikspor's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Pendikspor's last 25 games and Trabzonspor's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pendikspor Win
35%
2.82
30%
3.34
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Pendikspor xG
Total xG
2.91
1.45
Trabzonspor xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
8%
12.02
8%
12.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.9 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.5 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pendikspor vs Trabzonspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pendikspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Pendikspor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Pendikspor and 1.45 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Pendikspor vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pendikspor's recent record stands at 6W 8D 11L from 25 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-L in the last five.
Trabzonspor, meanwhile, have gone 12W 4D 9L across 25 games — 1.60 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Trabzonspor by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pendikspor heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pendikspor have managed 4W 3D 5L from their last 12 home games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Trabzonspor's away record stands at 5W 3D 4L across their last 12 away games, a 1.50 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Pendikspor are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.56 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pendikspor have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pendikspor
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
Pendikspor (Home) vs Trabzonspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pendikspor
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Pendikspor vs Trabzonspor Form FAQs
What form are Pendikspor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Pendikspor have gone 6W 8D 11L in their last 25 games (1.04 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 12W 4D 9L in their last 25 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pendikspor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Trabzonspor's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pendikspor at home: 1.25 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 18 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pendikspor
0
Draws
2
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Pendikspor vs Trabzonspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pendikspor and Trabzonspor?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Pendikspor have won 0, Trabzonspor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pendikspor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 February 2024: Pendikspor 0-2 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Pendikspor and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pendikspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pendikspor 58%, Trabzonspor 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Pendikspor) and 50% (Trabzonspor).
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pendikspor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pendikspor vs Trabzonspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pendikspor and Trabzonspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Pendikspor's games and 58% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Pendikspor and Trabzonspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Pendikspor's recent games and 50% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pendikspor and Trabzonspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Pendikspor's recent matches and 73% of Trabzonspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trabzonspor cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Pendikspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Pendikspor 0-2 at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pendikspor 1.46 xG and Trabzonspor 1.45 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Pendikspor fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pendikspor attack 1.02 / defence 1.16 against Trabzonspor attack 1.06 / defence 0.98, drawn from 25/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pendikspor 35% | Draw 30% | Trabzonspor 35%, with Pendikspor to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Trabzonspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pendikspor 52%, Trabzonspor 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pendikspor's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.04. That form edge translated into the three points. Pendikspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.