Pendikspor 2-1 Rizespor – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Pendikspor at 41%, yet in-form Rizespor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Pendikspor vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Rizespor make the trip to Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu to face Pendikspor in Süper Lig (matchday 36). The match kicks off on Sunday 12 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time.

Current Form

Pendikspor's record over their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Pendikspor at home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Pendikspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Rizespor have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W W L D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Rizespor's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Rizespor are 0.60 PPG clear of Pendikspor over their recent games (1.30 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Pendikspor, 1 for Rizespor and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 6.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 21 Dec 2023, ended Pendikspor 1–5 Rizespor — a Rizespor win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 6.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Pendikspor — key trading statistics (last 35 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Rizespor — key trading statistics (last 35 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pendikspor 66% versus Rizespor 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pendikspor 54% | Rizespor 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pendikspor 1.75 xG and Rizespor 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pendikspor attack 0.818 / defence 1.295 | Rizespor attack 0.962 / defence 1.378. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.234. Rizespor's defence rating of 1.378 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Pendikspor's projected output up. Pendikspor's defence rating of 1.295 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Rizespor's projected output up. Data: built from Pendikspor's last 35 games and Rizespor's last 35.

Result probabilities: Pendikspor 41% | Draw 26% | Rizespor 32%. Fair-value odds: Pendikspor 2.41 | Draw 3.84 | Rizespor 3.08. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.75 / 1.54) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Pendikspor as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rizespor (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pendikspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Pendikspor's last 10 home games and Rizespor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Pendikspor 50% (last 10 home games) | Rizespor 50% (last 10 away games).

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