Konyaspor 2-1 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 32 as Konyaspor welcome Trabzonspor to Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 April 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Konyaspor have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Konyaspor's home record at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu this season.
Trabzonspor — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Konyaspor carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Konyaspor, 1 for Trabzonspor and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 56% versus Trabzonspor 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 54% | Trabzonspor 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.64 xG and Trabzonspor 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.720 / defence 0.911 | Trabzonspor attack 0.798 / defence 1.332. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.396. Konyaspor's attack strength of 0.720 is below the league average — the 1.64 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Trabzonspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.332 — this is suppressing Konyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 68 Konyaspor games / 66 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 52% | Draw 25% | Trabzonspor 23%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Trabzonspor 4.35. Konyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Konyaspor at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 70% | Trabzonspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 52% | Draw 25% | Trabzonspor 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Konyaspor 1.64 / Trabzonspor 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.720 / def 0.911 | Trabzonspor attack 0.798 / def 1.332 | league avg home 1.707 / away 1.396 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Trabzonspor xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 29 April 2023 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Konyaspor 2 - 1 Trabzonspor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 52% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Konyaspor and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Trabzonspor?
Record (3 meetings): Konyaspor 0W | Draws 2 | Trabzonspor 1W.
What form are Konyaspor and Trabzonspor in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Trabzonspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (0.72) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
52%
1.93
25%
4.06
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.65
1.01
Trabzonspor xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
19%
5.14
Win to Nil
19%
5.32
5%
21.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.7 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.01 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 66 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 28W 20D 18L record — D-D-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Trabzonspor's form line: 35W 18D 13L from 66 games, 1.86 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Konyaspor on 1.58 PPG, Trabzonspor on 1.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 1.72 PPG from 32 outings (15W 10D 7L).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 14W 7D 11L from 32 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Konyaspor are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.70 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor in 61%.
Defensively: Trabzonspor in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Current Season
Trabzonspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 28W 20D 18L in their last 66 games (1.58 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 35W 18D 13L in their last 66 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.72 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Konyaspor's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Konyaspor
2
Draws
5
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Trabzonspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 3, Trabzonspor have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Konyaspor 2-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 44%, Trabzonspor 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Konyaspor) and 62% (Trabzonspor).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Konyaspor's games and 69% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Konyaspor's recent games and 62% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Konyaspor edge out Trabzonspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Trabzonspor 2-1 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Regular Season - 32, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.64 xG and Trabzonspor 1.01 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.72 / defence 0.91 against Trabzonspor attack 0.80 / defence 1.33, drawn from 68/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 52% | Draw 25% | Trabzonspor 23%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 54%, Trabzonspor 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.58 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Konyaspor win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.