Konyaspor 2-2 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 6 as Konyaspor welcome Trabzonspor to Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Thursday 23 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Konyaspor have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Trabzonspor — All Games: 4W 1D 0L from 5 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Trabzonspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 away fixtures this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.20 PPG (Konyaspor) versus 2.60 (Trabzonspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Konyaspor 60% and Trabzonspor 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 40% | Trabzonspor 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.17 xG and Trabzonspor 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 1.218 / defence 1.094 | Trabzonspor attack 1.136 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.083 / away 1.085. Data: 5 Konyaspor games / 5 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 32% | Draw 27% | Trabzonspor 41%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Trabzonspor 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Konyaspor 60% | Trabzonspor 33%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu • Kick-off: Thursday 23 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 32% | Draw 27% | Trabzonspor 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Konyaspor 1.17 / Trabzonspor 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 1.218 / def 1.094 | Trabzonspor attack 1.136 / def 0.885 | league avg home 1.083 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Trabzonspor xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 15:00 on Thursday 23 September 2021 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Konyaspor 2 - 2 Trabzonspor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 32% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Konyaspor and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Trabzonspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Konyaspor and Trabzonspor in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 3W-2D-0L in 5 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Trabzonspor (all comps): 4W-1D-0L in 5 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (1.22) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
32%
3.10
27%
3.73
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.52
1.35
Trabzonspor xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
8%
11.92
13%
7.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.35 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 5 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 2.20 PPG on a 3W 2D 0L record — W-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Konyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Trabzonspor's form line: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games, 2.60 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Trabzonspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Konyaspor on 2.20 PPG, Trabzonspor on 2.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Konyaspor are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 2.20 scored and 0.80 conceded. Trabzonspor's attacking output running into Konyaspor's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Trabzonspor in 60%.
Defensively: Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Trabzonspor in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Early Season
Trabzonspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 3W 2D 0L in their last 5 games (2.20 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 4W 1D 0L in their last 5 (2.60 PPG).
Have Konyaspor or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Konyaspor's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Konyaspor
2
Draws
5
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Trabzonspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 3, Trabzonspor have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Konyaspor 2-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 60%, Trabzonspor 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Konyaspor) and 60% (Trabzonspor).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Trabzonspor in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Konyaspor's games and 60% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Konyaspor's recent games and 60% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Konyaspor and Trabzonspor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Regular Season - 6, as Konyaspor and Trabzonspor drew 2-2 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.17 xG and Trabzonspor 1.35 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Konyaspor beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 1.22 / defence 1.09 against Trabzonspor attack 1.14 / defence 0.89, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 32% | Draw 27% | Trabzonspor 41%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 40%, Trabzonspor 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 2.20 PPG, Trabzonspor 2.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Konyaspor shipped 2 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Trabzonspor shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.