Konyaspor 1-0 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 46%, yet in-form Trabzonspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 26 as Konyaspor welcome Trabzonspor to Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Monday 3 March 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Konyaspor have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor's home record at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Trabzonspor — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Trabzonspor's 1.70 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Konyaspor's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Trabzonspor have the better historical record — 4 wins from 6 previous contests against 1 for Konyaspor.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 2–3 with Trabzonspor winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Trabzonspor have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (61 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (61 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 56% versus Trabzonspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 43% | Trabzonspor 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.66 xG and Trabzonspor 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 1.006 / defence 1.173 | Trabzonspor attack 0.892 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.630 / away 1.191. Data: 62 Konyaspor games / 61 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 46% | Draw 26% | Trabzonspor 28%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Trabzonspor 3.57. Konyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Konyaspor at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Trabzonspor (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 70% | Trabzonspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 3 Mar 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 46% | Draw 26% | Trabzonspor 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Konyaspor 1.66 / Trabzonspor 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 1.006 / def 1.173 | Trabzonspor attack 0.892 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.630 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Trabzonspor xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 13:00 on Monday 3 March 2025 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Konyaspor 1 - 0 Trabzonspor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 46% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Konyaspor and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Trabzonspor?
Record (6 meetings): Konyaspor 1W | Draws 1 | Trabzonspor 4W.
What form are Konyaspor and Trabzonspor in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Trabzonspor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (1.01) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
46%
2.18
26%
3.81
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.90
1.25
Trabzonspor xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
13%
7.57
5%
18.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.3 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.25 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 61 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 15W 20D 26L record — L-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor's form line: 29W 12D 20L from 61 games, 1.62 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Trabzonspor are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Konyaspor.
Venue Form
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 1.24 PPG from 29 outings (9W 9D 11L).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 9W 8D 12L from 29 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trabzonspor's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Konyaspor are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.75 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 15W 20D 26L in their last 61 games (1.07 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 29W 12D 20L in their last 61 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.24 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Konyaspor have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Konyaspor's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Konyaspor
1
Draws
5
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Trabzonspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 4, Trabzonspor have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Konyaspor 1-0 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 55%, Trabzonspor 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Konyaspor) and 55% (Trabzonspor).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Trabzonspor in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Konyaspor's games and 62% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Konyaspor's recent games and 55% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Konyaspor edge out Trabzonspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Trabzonspor 1-0 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.66 xG and Trabzonspor 1.25 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Trabzonspor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 1.01 / defence 1.17 against Trabzonspor attack 0.89 / defence 1.01, drawn from 62/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 46% | Draw 26% | Trabzonspor 28%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 43%, Trabzonspor 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (61 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (61 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Konyaspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Konyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.