Konyaspor 1-1 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Konyaspor at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Konyaspor vs Kayserispor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium plays host to Konyaspor versus Kayserispor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 20 December 2025 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Konyaspor (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Kayserispor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kayserispor have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Konyaspor against 1.00 for Kayserispor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Konyaspor register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Kayserispor in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Across 8 previous meetings, Konyaspor are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 3 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2025, ended 2–3 with Kayserispor winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Konyaspor and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Konyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Kayserispor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 64% versus Kayserispor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 54% | Kayserispor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.39 xG and Kayserispor 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.928 / defence 1.053 | Kayserispor attack 0.919 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.316. Data: 52 Konyaspor games / 52 Kayserispor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 36% | Draw 33% | Kayserispor 31%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | Kayserispor 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Konyaspor at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 70% | Kayserispor 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Kayserispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Dec 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 36% | Draw 33% | Kayserispor 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 58% | xG Konyaspor 1.39 / Kayserispor 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.928 / def 1.053 | Kayserispor attack 0.919 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Kayserispor xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Kayserispor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Kayserispor kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 20 December 2025 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Konyaspor 1 - 1 Kayserispor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Kayserispor being played?
The match is being played at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Kayserispor part of?
Konyaspor vs Kayserispor is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 36% chance of winning, Kayserispor a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Konyaspor and Kayserispor will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Kayserispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Kayserispor?
Record (8 meetings): Konyaspor 4W | Draws 3 | Kayserispor 1W.
What form are Konyaspor and Kayserispor in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Kayserispor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (0.93) and Kayserispor's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kayserispor's attack (0.92x) against Konyaspor's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
36%
2.77
33%
3.00
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.67
1.27
Kayserispor xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
10%
9.91
8%
13.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.3 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Kayserispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.27 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Konyaspor's recent record stands at 17W 11D 24L from 52 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kayserispor, meanwhile, have gone 13W 20D 19L across 52 games — 1.13 PPG, with L-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Konyaspor against 1.13 for Kayserispor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Konyaspor have managed 11W 7D 8L from 26 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kayserispor's away record stands at 4W 12D 10L across 26 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Konyaspor are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Kayserispor are on 1.15 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Kayserispor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Kayserispor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 17W 11D 24L in their last 52 games (1.19 PPG), while Kayserispor have gone 13W 20D 19L in their last 52 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Kayserispor away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.54 PPG; Kayserispor away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Kayserispor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Konyaspor
4
Draws
2
Kayserispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Kayserispor?
From 10 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 4, Kayserispor have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Kayserispor last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Kayserispor 2-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Kayserispor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 62%, Kayserispor 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Konyaspor) and 42% (Kayserispor).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Kayserispor in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Kayserispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Kayserispor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Konyaspor's games and 58% of Kayserispor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Konyaspor vs Kayserispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Konyaspor's recent games and 42% of Kayserispor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Kayserispor tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Kayserispor in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Konyaspor and Kayserispor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor and Kayserispor finished level at 1-1 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.39 xG and Kayserispor 1.27 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.93 / defence 1.05 against Kayserispor attack 0.92 / defence 1.18, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 36% | Draw 33% | Kayserispor 31%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 54%, Kayserispor 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Kayserispor's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.19 PPG, Kayserispor 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.