Konyaspor 3-1 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Hatayspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Hatayspor make the trip to Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu to face Konyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 37. The match kicks off on Sunday 15 May 2022 at 17:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Konyaspor have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Konyaspor's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.

Hatayspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Hatayspor have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Konyaspor, 1.10 for Hatayspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Konyaspor lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2021, ended 3–1 with Konyaspor winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Konyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Hatayspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 58% versus Hatayspor 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 58% | Hatayspor 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 2.32 xG and Hatayspor 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 1.160 / defence 0.973 | Hatayspor attack 0.721 / defence 1.660. League average goals — home 1.206 / away 1.344. Hatayspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.660 — this is suppressing Konyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Konyaspor games / 36 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Konyaspor 67% | Draw 21% | Hatayspor 12%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 1.49 | Draw 4.76 | Hatayspor 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Konyaspor (67%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Konyaspor as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Konyaspor 30% | Hatayspor 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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