Konyaspor 2-0 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Konyaspor at 48% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Konyaspor vs Hatayspor encounter.

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Analysis

Hatayspor make the trip to Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu to face Konyaspor in Süper Lig (matchday 27). The match kicks off on Saturday 24 February 2024 at 16:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Konyaspor have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Konyaspor's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Hatayspor's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

When travelling, Hatayspor have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Konyaspor, 1.00 for Hatayspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

The head-to-head record in our data favours Konyaspor, who have won 4 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against Hatayspor — Hatayspor have 1 win, with 0 draws.

The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 8 Oct 2023, ended Konyaspor 1–3 Hatayspor — a Hatayspor win.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Konyaspor and goals — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.2 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

Trading Data

Konyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).

Hatayspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 53% versus Hatayspor 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 45% | Hatayspor 64%). Note also that Hatayspor surrender HT leads in 44% of cases while Konyaspor recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.29 xG and Hatayspor 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.868 / defence 0.939 | Hatayspor attack 0.611 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.207. Hatayspor's attack rating of 0.611 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.69. Data: built from Konyaspor's last 62 games and Hatayspor's last 62.

Result probabilities: Konyaspor 48% | Draw 35% | Hatayspor 17%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.08 | Draw 2.87 | Hatayspor 5.87. Konyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Konyaspor as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Konyaspor 4 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 1.99 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 68% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Konyaspor's last 10 home games and Hatayspor's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Konyaspor 50% (last 10 home games) | Hatayspor 30% (last 10 away games).

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