Konyaspor vs Göztepe – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Göztepe at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Konyaspor vs Göztepe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Göztepe travel to Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium to take on Konyaspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 May 2027, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Konyaspor — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium, Konyaspor have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Göztepe stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Göztepe's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Göztepe are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Konyaspor, 1 for Göztepe and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 6 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Konyaspor in-play tendencies (44 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Göztepe in-play tendencies (44 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 54% versus Göztepe 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 50% | Göztepe 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.02 xG and Göztepe 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.689 / defence 0.992 | Göztepe attack 1.463 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.253. Konyaspor's attack strength of 0.689 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Göztepe have an above-average attack strength of 1.463 — the away xG of 1.82 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Konyaspor games / 44 Göztepe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 21% | Draw 23% | Göztepe 56%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 4.76 | Draw 4.35 | Göztepe 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Göztepe (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Konyaspor dominate the H2H record, yet Göztepe are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Göztepe are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Konyaspor 20% | Göztepe 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 21% | Draw 23% | Göztepe 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 54% | xG Konyaspor 1.02 / Göztepe 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.689 / def 0.992 | Göztepe attack 1.463 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Göztepe (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Göztepe xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Göztepe kick off?
Konyaspor vs Göztepe is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 9 May 2027 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
Where is Konyaspor vs Göztepe being played?
The match is being played at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Göztepe part of?
Konyaspor vs Göztepe is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 21% chance of winning, Göztepe a 56% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Göztepe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Konyaspor and Göztepe will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Göztepe?
Record (6 meetings): Konyaspor 3W | Draws 2 | Göztepe 1W.
What form are Konyaspor and Göztepe in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Göztepe (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Konyaspor's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Göztepe's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Göztepe's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Göztepe Win
21%
4.75
23%
4.36
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.84
1.82
Göztepe xG
4.75
21%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
16%
6.16
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
3%
29.23
20%
4.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 10.6 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.82 for Göztepe, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Göztepe?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Konyaspor come into this having played 44 games, going 12W 12D 20L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-L. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Göztepe sit at 1.59 PPG from 44 outings (18W 16D 10L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Göztepe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Göztepe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Konyaspor's home form reads 8W 7D 8L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Göztepe have taken 1.52 points per game from 23 outings (9W 8D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Konyaspor are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Göztepe are on 1.43 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Göztepe in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Göztepe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Göztepe in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 12W 12D 20L in their last 44 games (1.09 PPG), while Göztepe have gone 18W 16D 10L in their last 44 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Göztepe away?
Göztepe's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.35 PPG; Göztepe away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Göztepe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Göztepe in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Apr 2022, when Konyaspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Konyaspor's record when hosting Göztepe specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Konyaspor
2
Draws
1
Göztepe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Göztepe?
From 6 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 3, Göztepe have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Göztepe last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Konyaspor 0-0 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Göztepe?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 44%, Göztepe 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Konyaspor) and 52% (Göztepe).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Göztepe in 35%; Konyaspor have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Göztepe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 52% of Göztepe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Göztepe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Konyaspor's recent games and 52% of Göztepe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Göztepe tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Göztepe in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.