Konyaspor 1-0 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Adana Demirspor make the trip to Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu to face Konyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Tuesday 18 January 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Konyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor's home record at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
Adana Demirspor (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Adana Demirspor's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.20 vs 2.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Konyaspor, 0 for Adana Demirspor and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Konyaspor — key trading statistics (20 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Adana Demirspor — key trading statistics (20 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 50% versus Adana Demirspor 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 45% | Adana Demirspor 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.21 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.876 / defence 0.862 | Adana Demirspor attack 1.117 / defence 1.205. League average goals — home 1.148 / away 1.107. Adana Demirspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.205 — this is suppressing Konyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Konyaspor games / 21 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 38% | Draw 30% | Adana Demirspor 31%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Adana Demirspor 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Konyaspor 40% | Adana Demirspor 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu • Kick-off: Tuesday 18 Jan 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 38% | Draw 30% | Adana Demirspor 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Konyaspor 1.21 / Adana Demirspor 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.876 / def 0.862 | Adana Demirspor attack 1.117 / def 1.205 | league avg home 1.148 / away 1.107 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Adana Demirspor xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 17:00 on Tuesday 18 January 2022 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Konyaspor 1 - 0 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 38% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor?
Record (1 meetings): Konyaspor 0W | Draws 1 | Adana Demirspor 0W.
What form are Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Konyaspor's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Adana Demirspor's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — Adana Demirspor's attack (1.12x) against Konyaspor's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 20/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
38%
2.60
30%
3.30
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.28
1.07
Adana Demirspor xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
13%
7.54
9%
10.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 10.9 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.2 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.07 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Konyaspor's recent record stands at 11W 6D 3L from 20 games, a 1.95 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Adana Demirspor, meanwhile, have gone 9W 7D 4L across 20 games — 1.70 PPG, with W-W-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.95 PPG for Konyaspor against 1.70 for Adana Demirspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Konyaspor have managed 7W 3D 1L from 11 games — 2.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Adana Demirspor's away record stands at 4W 4D 3L across 11 trips, a 1.45 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Konyaspor are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.50 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Adana Demirspor in 60%.
Defensively: Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Adana Demirspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 11W 6D 3L in their last 20 games (1.95 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 9W 7D 4L in their last 20 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Konyaspor's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 2.18 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Adana Demirspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Adana Demirspor in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Konyaspor have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Adana Demirspor won 3-0 on 28 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Adana Demirspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Konyaspor
3
Draws
2
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 3, Adana Demirspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2025, when Konyaspor 3-1 Adana Demirspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 46%, Adana Demirspor 82% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Konyaspor) and 64% (Adana Demirspor).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Adana Demirspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Konyaspor's games and 82% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Konyaspor's recent games and 64% of Adana Demirspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Konyaspor edge out Adana Demirspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Adana Demirspor 1-0 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.21 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.07 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Adana Demirspor landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.88 / defence 0.86 against Adana Demirspor attack 1.12 / defence 1.21, drawn from 20/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 38% | Draw 30% | Adana Demirspor 31%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 45%, Adana Demirspor 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (20 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (20 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.95 PPG, Adana Demirspor 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Konyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.