Kayserispor 1-1 Göztepe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kayserispor at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kayserispor vs Göztepe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Göztepe travel to Kadir Has Şehir Stadı to take on Kayserispor. The game is scheduled for Monday 22 November 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kayserispor have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kayserispor's home record at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı: 3W 1D 1L from 5 Süper Lig appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Kayserispor are significantly better at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Göztepe stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Göztepe's away record: 1W 3D 2L from 6 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Kayserispor carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Kayserispor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Göztepe in 100% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Kayserispor in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Göztepe in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 58% versus Göztepe 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 58% | Göztepe 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Kayserispor surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Göztepe have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.63 xG and Göztepe 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 1.089 / defence 1.004 | Göztepe attack 0.989 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.185 / away 1.129. Göztepe bring a strong defensive rating of 1.265 — this is suppressing Kayserispor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Kayserispor games / 12 Göztepe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 49% | Draw 25% | Göztepe 26%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Göztepe 3.85. Kayserispor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kayserispor at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kayserispor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kayserispor 60% | Göztepe 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Kadir Has Şehir Stadı • Kick-off: Monday 22 Nov 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 49% | Draw 25% | Göztepe 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Kayserispor 1.63 / Göztepe 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 1.089 / def 1.004 | Göztepe attack 0.989 / def 1.265 | league avg home 1.185 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Kayserispor (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Göztepe xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kayserispor vs Göztepe kick off?
Kayserispor vs Göztepe kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 22 November 2021 at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Göztepe?
Kayserispor 1 - 1 Göztepe.
Where is Kayserispor vs Göztepe being played?
The match is being played at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Göztepe part of?
Kayserispor vs Göztepe is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 49% chance of winning, Göztepe a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Kayserispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Kayserispor and Göztepe will score (BTTS).
Will Kayserispor vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Göztepe?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kayserispor and Göztepe in?
Kayserispor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Göztepe (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Kayserispor's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Göztepe's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. The same calculation in reverse, Göztepe's attack versus Kayserispor's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kayserispor Win
49%
2.03
25%
4.07
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
2.75
1.12
Göztepe xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
16%
6.23
5%
19.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.7 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Kayserispor and 1.12 for Göztepe, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Göztepe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kayserispor come into this having played 12 games, going 4W 3D 5L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Göztepe sit at 0.75 PPG from 12 outings (2W 3D 7L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Göztepe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kayserispor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Göztepe — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Kayserispor's home form reads 3W 1D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Kayserispor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Göztepe have taken 1.00 points per game from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kayserispor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kayserispor are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Göztepe are on 0.92 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Blended
Göztepe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kayserispor and Göztepe in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 4W 3D 5L in their last 12 games (1.25 PPG), while Göztepe have gone 2W 3D 7L in their last 12 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Göztepe away?
Kayserispor's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 2.00 PPG; Göztepe away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kayserispor and Göztepe runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Sep 2024, when Göztepe won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kayserispor's record when hosting Göztepe specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Kayserispor
3
Draws
1
Göztepe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Göztepe?
From 6 meetings on record, Kayserispor have won 2, Göztepe have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Göztepe last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Göztepe 0-0 Kayserispor.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Göztepe?
Kayserispor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Kayserispor at 60%, Göztepe at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Kayserispor and 100% for Göztepe. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kayserispor play Göztepe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Kayserispor's games and 100% of Göztepe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kayserispor vs Göztepe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Kayserispor's matches and 100% of Göztepe's.
Do Kayserispor and Göztepe tend to score early?
Kayserispor have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Göztepe in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kayserispor and Göztepe share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kayserispor and Göztepe finished level at 1-1 at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı, Regular Season - 13, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.63 xG and Göztepe 1.12 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 1.09 / defence 1.00 against Göztepe attack 0.99 / defence 1.26, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 49% | Draw 25% | Göztepe 26%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 58%, Göztepe 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Göztepe's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Kayserispor arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kayserispor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Göztepe (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.