Kasımpaşa vs Çorum FK – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Çorum FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 19 as Kasımpaşa welcome Çorum FK to . Kick-off is set for Sunday 31 January 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kasımpaşa have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at , Kasımpaşa have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at .
Çorum FK — All Games: 4W 1D 3L from 8 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.62 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.25 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Çorum FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Çorum FK's away record: 2W 1D 1L from 4 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.75 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Kasımpaşa at 1.60 PPG versus Çorum FK's 1.62. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Kasımpaşa, 0 for Çorum FK and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2026, ended 1–0 with Kasımpaşa winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Kasımpaşa in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 38% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Çorum FK in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kasımpaşa 75% and Çorum FK 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Kasımpaşa 50% | Çorum FK 88%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 2.01 xG and Çorum FK 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.055 / defence 0.935 | Çorum FK attack 1.481 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.187. Çorum FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.212 — this is suppressing Kasımpaşa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Çorum FK have an above-average attack strength of 1.481 — the away xG of 1.64 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Kasımpaşa games / 8 Çorum FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 47% | Draw 21% | Çorum FK 32%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.13 | Draw 4.76 | Çorum FK 3.12. Kasımpaşa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.01 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kasımpaşa as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.66 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 40% | Çorum FK 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Çorum FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jan 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 47% | Draw 21% | Çorum FK 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 70% | xG Kasımpaşa 2.01 / Çorum FK 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.055 / def 0.935 | Çorum FK attack 1.481 / def 1.212 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Çorum FK xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Çorum FK kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Çorum FK is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 31 January 2027.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Çorum FK part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Çorum FK is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Çorum FK?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 47% chance of winning, Çorum FK a 32% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Çorum FK?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Çorum FK will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Çorum FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Çorum FK?
Record (1 meetings): Kasımpaşa 1W | Draws 0 | Çorum FK 0W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Çorum FK in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Çorum FK (all comps): 4W-1D-3L in 8 | 1.62 PPG | GF 2.25 / GA 1.62 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Kasımpaşa's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Çorum FK's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.01. The same calculation in reverse, Çorum FK's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
47%
2.14
21%
4.67
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
3.66
1.64
Çorum FK xG
2.14
47%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.32
Clean Sheet
19%
5.17
13%
7.48
Win to Nil
9%
11.08
4%
23.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.6 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Çorum FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Çorum FK expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.64 for Çorum FK, a combined total of 3.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Çorum FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 8 games, going 3W 4D 1L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-W. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Çorum FK sit at 1.62 PPG from 8 outings (4W 1D 3L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Çorum FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kasımpaşa on 1.62 PPG, Çorum FK on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 1W 3D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Çorum FK have taken 1.75 points per game from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L).
Goals in Recent Form
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Çorum FK are on 2.25 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Çorum FK in 62%.
Last 8 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Çorum FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Çorum FK in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 3W 4D 1L in their last 8 games (1.62 PPG), while Çorum FK have gone 4W 1D 3L in their last 8 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Çorum FK away?
Çorum FK's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.50 PPG; Çorum FK away: 1.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Kasımpaşa
0
Draws
0
Çorum FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Çorum FK?
From 1 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 1, Çorum FK have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Çorum FK last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Çorum FK 0-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Çorum FK?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Çorum FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Kasımpaşa at 75%, Çorum FK at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Kasımpaşa and 100% for Çorum FK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Çorum FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Çorum FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Kasımpaşa's games and 75% of Çorum FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Çorum FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 100% of Çorum FK's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Çorum FK tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Çorum FK in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.