Kasımpaşa 5-1 Giresunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 39%, yet in-form Giresunspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Kasımpaşa vs Giresunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu plays host to Kasımpaşa versus Giresunspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Wednesday 1 February 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Kasımpaşa (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa's home record at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Kasımpaşa are significantly better at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Giresunspor have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Giresunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Giresunspor have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Giresunspor are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Kasımpaşa register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Giresunspor in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Kasımpaşa 2W, Giresunspor 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2022, ended 0–1 with Giresunspor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Kasımpaşa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Giresunspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 64% versus Giresunspor 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 62% | Giresunspor 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.56 xG and Giresunspor 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.976 / defence 1.212 | Giresunspor attack 0.867 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.612 / away 1.417. Data: 58 Kasımpaşa games / 58 Giresunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 39% | Draw 25% | Giresunspor 36%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Giresunspor 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kasımpaşa as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Giresunspor (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 70% | Giresunspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Giresunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 39% | Draw 25% | Giresunspor 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.56 / Giresunspor 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 0.976 / def 1.212 | Giresunspor attack 0.867 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.612 / away 1.417 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Giresunspor xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Giresunspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Giresunspor kicked off at 14:00 on Wednesday 1 February 2023 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Giresunspor?
Kasımpaşa 5 - 1 Giresunspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Giresunspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Giresunspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Giresunspor is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Giresunspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 39% chance of winning, Giresunspor a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Giresunspor?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Giresunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Giresunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Giresunspor?
Record (3 meetings): Kasımpaşa 2W | Draws 0 | Giresunspor 1W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Giresunspor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Giresunspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Kasımpaşa's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Giresunspor's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — Giresunspor's attack (0.87x) against Kasımpaşa's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
39%
2.57
25%
3.96
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
3.05
1.49
Giresunspor xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
23%
4.43
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
9%
11.37
8%
13.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.0 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Giresunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Giresunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.49 for Giresunspor, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Giresunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 58 outings, Kasımpaşa have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 20W 12D 26L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Giresunspor's form line: 17W 15D 26L from 58 games, 1.14 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-L. The sample for Giresunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Kasımpaşa against 1.14 for Giresunspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Kasımpaşa have posted 1.30 PPG from 30 outings (11W 6D 13L).
On the road, Giresunspor have gone 7W 9D 14L from 30 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Giresunspor are on 1.03 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Giresunspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Giresunspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 20W 12D 26L in their last 58 games (1.24 PPG), while Giresunspor have gone 17W 15D 26L in their last 58 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Giresunspor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.30 PPG; Giresunspor away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kasımpaşa won 5-1 on 1 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kasımpaşa have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Giresunspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Kasımpaşa
0
Draws
1
Giresunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Giresunspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 3, Giresunspor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Giresunspor last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2023, when Kasımpaşa 5-1 Giresunspor.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Giresunspor?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Giresunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 70%, Giresunspor 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Kasımpaşa) and 47% (Giresunspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Giresunspor in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Giresunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Giresunspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Kasımpaşa's games and 57% of Giresunspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Giresunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 47% of Giresunspor's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Giresunspor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Giresunspor in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Kasımpaşa run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Giresunspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Giresunspor 5-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.56 xG and Giresunspor 1.49 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Kasımpaşa beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.98 / defence 1.21 against Giresunspor attack 0.87 / defence 0.99, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 39% | Draw 25% | Giresunspor 36%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 62%, Giresunspor 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (58 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Giresunspor's trading profile (58 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.24 PPG, Giresunspor 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Giresunspor (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.