Kasımpaşa vs Erzurumspor FK – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Erzurumspor FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kasımpaşa host Erzurumspor FK at in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 May 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Kasımpaşa — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa's home record at : 5W 5D 0L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at .
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Erzurumspor FK have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Erzurumspor FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Erzurumspor FK's away record: 1W 2D 2L from 5 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Kasımpaşa at 1.70 PPG versus Erzurumspor FK's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 40% of cases; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Erzurumspor FK in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 70% versus Erzurumspor FK 30%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 50% | Erzurumspor FK 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.72 xG and Erzurumspor FK 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.052 / defence 0.979 | Erzurumspor FK attack 0.817 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.253. Data: 44 Kasımpaşa games / 10 Erzurumspor FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 54% | Draw 24% | Erzurumspor FK 22%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Erzurumspor FK 4.55. Kasımpaşa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kasımpaşa as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Kasımpaşa 50% | Erzurumspor FK 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Erzurumspor FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 54% | Draw 24% | Erzurumspor FK 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.72 / Erzurumspor FK 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.052 / def 0.979 | Erzurumspor FK attack 0.817 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Erzurumspor FK xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Erzurumspor FK kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Erzurumspor FK is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 9 May 2027.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Erzurumspor FK part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Erzurumspor FK is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Erzurumspor FK?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 54% chance of winning, Erzurumspor FK a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Erzurumspor FK?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Erzurumspor FK will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Erzurumspor FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Erzurumspor FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Erzurumspor FK in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Erzurumspor FK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Kasımpaşa's attack rating (1.05) and Erzurumspor FK's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Erzurumspor FK's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
54%
1.84
24%
4.20
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.72
1.00
Erzurumspor FK xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
18%
5.59
Win to Nil
20%
5.02
4%
25.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Erzurumspor FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Erzurumspor FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.00 for Erzurumspor FK, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Erzurumspor FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 10 games, going 4W 5D 1L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-D. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Erzurumspor FK sit at 1.40 PPG from 10 outings (4W 2D 4L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Erzurumspor FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kasımpaşa on 1.70 PPG, Erzurumspor FK on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 1W 4D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Erzurumspor FK have taken 1.00 points per game from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L).
The Goals Picture
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Erzurumspor FK are on 0.90 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Erzurumspor FK in 30%.
Defensively: Erzurumspor FK in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Erzurumspor FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Erzurumspor FK in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 4W 5D 1L in their last 10 games (1.70 PPG), while Erzurumspor FK have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Erzurumspor FK away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.40 PPG; Erzurumspor FK away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Kasımpaşa or Erzurumspor FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kasımpaşa have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Erzurumspor FK in 40%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Erzurumspor FK tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 80%, Erzurumspor FK 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Kasımpaşa and 60% for Erzurumspor FK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Erzurumspor FK in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Erzurumspor FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Erzurumspor FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Kasımpaşa's games and 40% of Erzurumspor FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Erzurumspor FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 60% of Erzurumspor FK's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Erzurumspor FK tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Erzurumspor FK in 20% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.