Hatayspor 3-2 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hatayspor at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hatayspor vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 28 as Hatayspor welcome Sivasspor to Mersin Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 March 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hatayspor stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Mersin Stadyumu, Hatayspor have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Sivasspor have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sivasspor's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Hatayspor) versus 0.90 (Sivasspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Hatayspor, 3 for Sivasspor and 3 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2024, ended 2–3 with Sivasspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hatayspor trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Sivasspor trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 59% versus Sivasspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 49% | Sivasspor 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.50 xG and Sivasspor 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 0.795 / defence 1.140 | Sivasspor attack 0.756 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.623 / away 1.195. Hatayspor's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 1.50 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 63 Hatayspor games / 64 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 48% | Draw 26% | Sivasspor 26%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Sivasspor 3.85. Hatayspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hatayspor are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hatayspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hatayspor 80% | Sivasspor 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Mersin Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Mar 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 48% | Draw 26% | Sivasspor 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Hatayspor 1.50 / Sivasspor 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 0.795 / def 1.140 | Sivasspor attack 0.756 / def 1.163 | league avg home 1.623 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Hatayspor (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Sivasspor xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Sivasspor kick off?
Hatayspor vs Sivasspor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 16 March 2025 at Mersin Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Sivasspor?
Hatayspor 3 - 2 Sivasspor.
Where is Hatayspor vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Mersin Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Sivasspor part of?
Hatayspor vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 48% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hatayspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Hatayspor and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Sivasspor?
Record (7 meetings): Hatayspor 1W | Draws 3 | Sivasspor 3W.
What form are Hatayspor and Sivasspor in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Sivasspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hatayspor's attack rating (0.80) and Sivasspor's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Hatayspor's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatayspor Win
48%
2.08
26%
3.82
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
2.53
1.03
Sivasspor xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
17%
5.84
6%
17.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.3 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.03 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hatayspor's recent record stands at 12W 21D 30L from 63 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sivasspor, meanwhile, have gone 21W 17D 25L across 63 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hatayspor on 0.90 PPG, Sivasspor on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hatayspor have managed 9W 11D 11L from 31 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sivasspor's away record stands at 9W 5D 17L across 31 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Hatayspor are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.22 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 12W 21D 30L in their last 63 games (0.90 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 21W 17D 25L in their last 63 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Sivasspor away?
Hatayspor's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.23 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Nov 2021, when Sivasspor won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hatayspor's record when hosting Sivasspor specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Hatayspor
3
Draws
3
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Sivasspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 2, Sivasspor have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when Hatayspor 3-2 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Sivasspor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 71%, Sivasspor 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Hatayspor) and 58% (Sivasspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sivasspor in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Sivasspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Hatayspor's games and 55% of Sivasspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hatayspor vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Hatayspor's matches and 58% of Sivasspor's.
Do Hatayspor and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hatayspor edge out Sivasspor 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hatayspor beat Sivasspor 3-2 at Mersin Stadyumu, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.50 xG and Sivasspor 1.03 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Hatayspor beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sivasspor outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.80 / defence 1.14 against Sivasspor attack 0.76 / defence 1.16, drawn from 63/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 48% | Draw 26% | Sivasspor 26%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 49%, Sivasspor 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Sivasspor's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hatayspor 0.90 PPG, Sivasspor 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hatayspor win broke the near-deadlock. Hatayspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm. Sivasspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.