Hatayspor 0-3 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hatayspor at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hatayspor face Samsunspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Samsunspor make the trip to Mersin Stadyumu to face Hatayspor in Süper Lig (matchday 4). The match kicks off on Sunday 1 September 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Form
Hatayspor (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Hatayspor's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Hatayspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Samsunspor have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Samsunspor's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Hatayspor against 1.00 for Samsunspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 17 Mar 2024, ended Hatayspor 3–0 Samsunspor — a Hatayspor win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Hatayspor — key trading statistics (last 40 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Samsunspor — key trading statistics (last 40 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 58% versus Samsunspor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 50% | Samsunspor 40%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Hatayspor surrender their half-time lead 60% of the time, while Samsunspor have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.34 xG and Samsunspor 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 0.960 / defence 0.967 | Samsunspor attack 0.847 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.295. Data: built from Hatayspor's last 41 games and Samsunspor's last 40.
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 41% | Draw 31% | Samsunspor 28%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 2.43 | Draw 3.23 | Samsunspor 3.59. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hatayspor are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hatayspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hatayspor 60% (last 10 home games) | Samsunspor 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 4 | Venue: Mersin Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 1 September 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 41% | Draw 31% | Samsunspor 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Hatayspor 1.34 / Samsunspor 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 0.960 / def 0.967 | Samsunspor attack 0.847 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Hatayspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Samsunspor xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hatayspor vs Samsunspor FAQs
What time does Hatayspor vs Samsunspor kick off?
Hatayspor vs Samsunspor kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Mersin Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Samsunspor?
Hatayspor 0 - 3 Samsunspor.
Where is Hatayspor vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Mersin Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Samsunspor part of?
Hatayspor vs Samsunspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 4) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 41% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Hatayspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Hatayspor and Samsunspor will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Hatayspor vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hatayspor's attack rating (0.96) and Samsunspor's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Samsunspor's attack (0.85x) against Hatayspor's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from Hatayspor's last 41 games and Samsunspor's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatayspor Win
41%
2.43
31%
3.23
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
2.40
1.06
Samsunspor xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
14%
7.02
7%
13.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.9 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hatayspor vs Samsunspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.06 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 40 outings, Hatayspor have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 8W 15D 17L record — D-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Samsunspor's form line: 12W 10D 18L from 40 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.98 PPG for Hatayspor against 1.15 for Samsunspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Hatayspor have posted 1.45 PPG from their last 20 home games (7W 8D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 0.98 PPG overall — Hatayspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Samsunspor have gone 2W 5D 13L from their last 20 away games — 0.55 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Samsunspor's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hatayspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hatayspor are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.08 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Early Season
Samsunspor
Early Season
Hatayspor (Home) vs Samsunspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hatayspor
Early Season
Samsunspor
Early Season
❓ Hatayspor vs Samsunspor Form FAQs
What form are Hatayspor and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 8W 15D 17L in their last 40 games (0.98 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 12W 10D 18L in their last 40 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Samsunspor away?
Hatayspor's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.45 PPG; Samsunspor away: 0.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 7 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Samsunspor have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hatayspor won Hatayspor 3-0 Samsunspor on 17 Mar 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hatayspor have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Samsunspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Hatayspor
0
Draws
3
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Hatayspor vs Samsunspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Samsunspor?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Hatayspor have won 1, Samsunspor have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Samsunspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2025: Samsunspor 2-0 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Samsunspor?
Samsunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 70%, Samsunspor 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Hatayspor) and 40% (Samsunspor).
On the defensive side: Samsunspor in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hatayspor vs Samsunspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hatayspor and Samsunspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Hatayspor's games and 55% of Samsunspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hatayspor and Samsunspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Hatayspor's recent games and 40% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hatayspor and Samsunspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Hatayspor's recent matches and 70% of Samsunspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Samsunspor run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Hatayspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Samsunspor beat Hatayspor 0-3 at Mersin Stadyumu, Regular Season - 4, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.34 xG and Samsunspor 1.06 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Hatayspor fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Samsunspor outscored their 1.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.96 / defence 0.97 against Samsunspor attack 0.85 / defence 0.93, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 41% | Draw 31% | Samsunspor 28%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Samsunspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 50%, Samsunspor 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Samsunspor's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hatayspor 0.98 PPG, Samsunspor 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Samsunspor win broke the near-deadlock. Hatayspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Samsunspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.