Hatayspor 3-3 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mersin Stadyumu plays host to Hatayspor versus Antalyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Friday 1 December 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hatayspor have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hatayspor have posted 3W 2D 5L at Mersin Stadyumu — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Antalyaspor (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Antalyaspor have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Antalyaspor are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Hatayspor, 2 for Antalyaspor and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Jun 2023, ended 0–3 with Antalyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Hatayspor half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 55% of games.
Antalyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 39% versus Antalyaspor 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 74% | Antalyaspor 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.43 xG and Antalyaspor 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 1.099 / defence 1.147 | Antalyaspor attack 1.126 / defence 0.859. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.195. Data: 49 Hatayspor games / 49 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 34% | Draw 28% | Antalyaspor 39%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Antalyaspor 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Antalyaspor at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Hatayspor 50% | Antalyaspor 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Mersin Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 1 Dec 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 34% | Draw 28% | Antalyaspor 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Hatayspor 1.43 / Antalyaspor 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 1.099 / def 1.147 | Antalyaspor attack 1.126 / def 0.859 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Antalyaspor xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 1 December 2023 at Mersin Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor?
Hatayspor 3 - 3 Antalyaspor.
Where is Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Mersin Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 34% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Hatayspor and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Antalyaspor?
Record (4 meetings): Hatayspor 1W | Draws 1 | Antalyaspor 2W.
What form are Hatayspor and Antalyaspor in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Antalyaspor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hatayspor's attack rating (1.10) and Antalyaspor's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Antalyaspor's attack (1.13x) against Hatayspor's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
34%
2.97
28%
3.62
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
2.97
1.54
Antalyaspor xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
21%
4.68
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
7%
13.93
9%
10.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.3 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.1 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.54 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 49 outings, Hatayspor have picked up 0.82 PPG on a 10W 10D 29L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antalyaspor's form line: 16W 12D 21L from 49 games, 1.22 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Antalyaspor are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hatayspor.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Hatayspor have posted 1.12 PPG from 24 outings (7W 6D 11L).
On the road, Antalyaspor have gone 5W 6D 13L from 24 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Hatayspor are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 2.06 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.29 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Blended
Antalyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 10W 10D 29L in their last 49 games (0.82 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 16W 12D 21L in their last 49 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Hatayspor's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.12 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Antalyaspor go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antalyaspor won 4-1 on 11 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hatayspor have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Hatayspor
2
Draws
5
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Antalyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 1, Antalyaspor have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Hatayspor 2-3 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Antalyaspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 46%, Antalyaspor 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Hatayspor) and 33% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Hatayspor have failed to score in 46% of games; Antalyaspor in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Hatayspor's recent matches and 42% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Hatayspor's recent games and 33% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hatayspor and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hatayspor and Antalyaspor share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mersin Stadyumu, Regular Season - 14, as Hatayspor and Antalyaspor drew 3-3 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.43 xG and Antalyaspor 1.54 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Hatayspor beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Antalyaspor outscored their 1.54 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 1.10 / defence 1.15 against Antalyaspor attack 1.13 / defence 0.86, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 34% | Draw 28% | Antalyaspor 39%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 74%, Antalyaspor 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Antalyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hatayspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.