Giresunspor 1-1 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Giresunspor vs Fenerbahçe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 33 as Giresunspor welcome Fenerbahçe to Çotanak Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 May 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Giresunspor stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Giresunspor at Çotanak Stadyumu this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Giresunspor are significantly better at Çotanak Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Fenerbahçe — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Fenerbahçe have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Fenerbahçe are 1.70 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Giresunspor, 2 for Fenerbahçe and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2022, ended 2–1 with Giresunspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Giresunspor in-play tendencies (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Fenerbahçe in-play tendencies (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Giresunspor 56% versus Fenerbahçe 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Giresunspor 48% | Fenerbahçe 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Giresunspor 1.03 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Giresunspor attack 0.845 / defence 1.195 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.375 / defence 0.714. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.395. Fenerbahçe's defence strength of 0.714 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack strength of 1.375 — the away xG of 2.29 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 68 Giresunspor games / 68 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Giresunspor 16% | Draw 19% | Fenerbahçe 66%. Fair-value odds: Giresunspor 6.25 | Draw 5.26 | Fenerbahçe 1.52. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (66%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.32 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.32 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Giresunspor 70% | Fenerbahçe 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Giresunspor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Çotanak Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 7 May 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Giresunspor 16% | Draw 19% | Fenerbahçe 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 58% | xG Giresunspor 1.03 / Fenerbahçe 2.29 • Poisson strength factors: Giresunspor attack 0.845 / def 1.195 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.375 / def 0.714 | league avg home 1.713 / away 1.395 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Giresunspor xG
Expected Goals
2.29
Fenerbahçe xG
58%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Giresunspor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Giresunspor vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 7 May 2023 at Çotanak Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Giresunspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Giresunspor 1 - 1 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Giresunspor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Çotanak Stadyumu.
What competition is Giresunspor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Giresunspor vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Giresunspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Giresunspor a 16% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 66% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Giresunspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Giresunspor and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Giresunspor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Giresunspor and Fenerbahçe?
Record (3 meetings): Giresunspor 1W | Draws 0 | Fenerbahçe 2W.
What form are Giresunspor and Fenerbahçe in?
Giresunspor (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Giresunspor's attack rating (0.84) and Fenerbahçe's defence rating (0.71), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fenerbahçe's attack versus Giresunspor's defence, projects 2.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.6%), 0-2 (9.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
16%
6.38
19%
5.35
66%
1.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.5%
Away win
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Giresunspor xG
Total xG
3.32
2.29
Fenerbahçe xG
6.38
16%
Home win
5.35
19%
Draw
1.52
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
10%
9.88
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
2%
63.04
23%
4.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Giresunspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Giresunspor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Giresunspor and 2.29 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Giresunspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 68 outings, Giresunspor have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 18W 18D 32L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Fenerbahçe's form line: 42W 14D 12L from 68 games, 2.06 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Fenerbahçe are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Giresunspor.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Giresunspor have posted 1.24 PPG from 33 outings (11W 8D 14L).
On the road, Fenerbahçe have gone 20W 7D 6L from 33 away games — 2.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Giresunspor are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.18 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fenerbahçe in 62%.
Last 68 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Giresunspor
Current Season
Fenerbahçe
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Giresunspor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Giresunspor have gone 18W 18D 32L in their last 68 games (1.06 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 42W 14D 12L in their last 68 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Giresunspor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Giresunspor at home: 1.24 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.03 PPG.
Have Giresunspor or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Giresunspor have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Giresunspor and Fenerbahçe runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Giresunspor's record when hosting Fenerbahçe specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Giresunspor
1
Draws
2
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Giresunspor and Fenerbahçe?
From 4 meetings on record, Giresunspor have won 1, Fenerbahçe have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Giresunspor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2023, when Giresunspor 1-1 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Giresunspor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Giresunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Giresunspor 54%, Fenerbahçe 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Giresunspor) and 67% (Fenerbahçe). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Giresunspor have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Giresunspor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Giresunspor play Fenerbahçe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Giresunspor's games and 70% of Fenerbahçe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Giresunspor vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Giresunspor's matches and 67% of Fenerbahçe's.
Do Giresunspor and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Giresunspor have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Giresunspor and Fenerbahçe share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Çotanak Stadyumu, Regular Season - 33, as Giresunspor and Fenerbahçe drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Giresunspor 1.03 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.29 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Fenerbahçe landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Giresunspor attack 0.84 / defence 1.20 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.38 / defence 0.71, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Giresunspor 16% | Draw 19% | Fenerbahçe 66%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Giresunspor 48%, Fenerbahçe 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Giresunspor's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.