Giresunspor 2-2 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fatih Karagümrük at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Giresunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Fatih Karagümrük travel to Çotanak Stadyumu to take on Giresunspor. The game is scheduled for Friday 10 March 2023, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Giresunspor stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Giresunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Giresunspor have posted 3W 1D 6L at Çotanak Stadyumu — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Fatih Karagümrük have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Fatih Karagümrük — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Giresunspor have won 1, Fatih Karagümrük 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Giresunspor in-play and half-time data (60 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Fatih Karagümrük in-play and half-time data (60 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Giresunspor 55% versus Fatih Karagümrük 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Giresunspor 47% | Fatih Karagümrük 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Giresunspor 1.31 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Giresunspor attack 0.782 / defence 1.145 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.280 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.605 / away 1.327. Giresunspor's attack strength of 0.782 is below the league average — the 1.31 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Fatih Karagümrük have an above-average attack strength of 1.280 — the away xG of 1.94 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 61 Giresunspor games / 60 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Giresunspor 26% | Draw 22% | Fatih Karagümrük 52%. Fair-value odds: Giresunspor 3.85 | Draw 4.55 | Fatih Karagümrük 1.92. Fatih Karagümrük hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.31 / 1.94) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fatih Karagümrük as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.26 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Giresunspor 50% | Fatih Karagümrük 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Giresunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Çotanak Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 10 Mar 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Giresunspor 26% | Draw 22% | Fatih Karagümrük 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Giresunspor 1.31 / Fatih Karagümrük 1.94 • Poisson strength factors: Giresunspor attack 0.782 / def 1.145 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.280 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.605 / away 1.327 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Giresunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.94
Fatih Karagümrük xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Giresunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Giresunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 10 March 2023 at Çotanak Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Giresunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Giresunspor 2 - 2 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Giresunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Çotanak Stadyumu.
What competition is Giresunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Giresunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Giresunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Giresunspor a 26% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 52% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Giresunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Giresunspor and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Giresunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Giresunspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (3 meetings): Giresunspor 1W | Draws 1 | Fatih Karagümrük 1W.
What form are Giresunspor and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Giresunspor (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Giresunspor's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Fatih Karagümrük's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, Fatih Karagümrük's attack versus Giresunspor's defence, projects 1.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
26%
3.87
22%
4.54
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Giresunspor xG
Total xG
3.26
1.94
Fatih Karagümrük xG
3.87
26%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
14%
6.99
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
4%
27.03
14%
7.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Giresunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Giresunspor and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Giresunspor and 1.94 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Giresunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Giresunspor come into this having played 60 games, going 17W 16D 27L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-D. The sample for Giresunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fatih Karagümrük sit at 1.43 PPG from 60 outings (23W 17D 20L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Giresunspor on 1.12 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Giresunspor's home form reads 10W 6D 12L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Fatih Karagümrük have taken 1.21 points per game from 28 outings (9W 7D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Giresunspor are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.57 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Giresunspor
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Giresunspor and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Giresunspor have gone 17W 16D 27L in their last 60 games (1.12 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 23W 17D 20L in their last 60 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Giresunspor at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Giresunspor's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Giresunspor at home: 1.29 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Giresunspor's record when hosting Fatih Karagümrük specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Giresunspor
2
Draws
1
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Giresunspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 4 meetings on record, Giresunspor have won 1, Fatih Karagümrük have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Giresunspor and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2023, when Giresunspor 2-2 Fatih Karagümrük.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Giresunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Giresunspor 54%, Fatih Karagümrük 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Giresunspor) and 68% (Fatih Karagümrük). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Giresunspor have failed to score in 32% of games; Fatih Karagümrük in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Giresunspor home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Giresunspor play Fatih Karagümrük?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Giresunspor's games and 61% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Giresunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Giresunspor's matches and 68% of Fatih Karagümrük's.
Do Giresunspor and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Giresunspor have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Giresunspor and Fatih Karagümrük share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Çotanak Stadyumu, Regular Season - 25, as Giresunspor and Fatih Karagümrük drew 2-2 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Giresunspor 1.31 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.94 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Giresunspor attack 0.78 / defence 1.15 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.28 / defence 1.05, drawn from 61/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Giresunspor 26% | Draw 22% | Fatih Karagümrük 52%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Giresunspor 47%, Fatih Karagümrük 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Giresunspor's trading profile (60 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (60 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Giresunspor 1.12 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Giresunspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.