Giresunspor 0-1 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Giresunspor at 39%, yet in-form Beşiktaş provide a compelling counter-argument — this Giresunspor vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Giresunspor host Beşiktaş at Çotanak Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Giresunspor — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Giresunspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Giresunspor have posted 4W 3D 3L at Çotanak Stadyumu — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Giresunspor are significantly better at Çotanak Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beşiktaş stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Beşiktaş have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Beşiktaş's 1.90 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Giresunspor's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Giresunspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Beşiktaş in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Giresunspor, 0 for Beşiktaş and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Giresunspor in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Beşiktaş in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Giresunspor 51% versus Beşiktaş 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Giresunspor 40% | Beşiktaş 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Giresunspor 1.54 xG and Beşiktaş 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Giresunspor attack 0.912 / defence 0.946 | Beşiktaş attack 1.248 / defence 1.232. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.250. Beşiktaş bring a strong defensive rating of 1.232 — this is suppressing Giresunspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Beşiktaş have an above-average attack strength of 1.248 — the away xG of 1.48 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Giresunspor games / 46 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Giresunspor 39% | Draw 25% | Beşiktaş 36%. Fair-value odds: Giresunspor 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Beşiktaş 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Giresunspor are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Beşiktaş (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Giresunspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Giresunspor 60% | Beşiktaş 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Giresunspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Çotanak Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Giresunspor 39% | Draw 25% | Beşiktaş 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Giresunspor 1.54 / Beşiktaş 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Giresunspor attack 0.912 / def 0.946 | Beşiktaş attack 1.248 / def 1.232 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Giresunspor (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Giresunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Beşiktaş xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Giresunspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Giresunspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Çotanak Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Giresunspor vs Beşiktaş?
Giresunspor 0 - 1 Beşiktaş.
Where is Giresunspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Çotanak Stadyumu.
What competition is Giresunspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Giresunspor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Giresunspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Giresunspor a 39% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Giresunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Giresunspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Giresunspor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Giresunspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Giresunspor and Beşiktaş?
Record (2 meetings): Giresunspor 1W | Draws 1 | Beşiktaş 0W.
What form are Giresunspor and Beşiktaş in?
Giresunspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Beşiktaş (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Giresunspor's attack at 0.91x the league average against Beşiktaş's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Beşiktaş's attack versus Giresunspor's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Giresunspor Win
39%
2.56
25%
4.04
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Giresunspor xG
Total xG
3.01
1.48
Beşiktaş xG
2.56
39%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
9%
11.22
8%
12.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.1 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Giresunspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Giresunspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Giresunspor and 1.48 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Giresunspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Giresunspor have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 14W 11D 20L record — W-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Giresunspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Beşiktaş's form line: 18W 17D 10L from 45 games, 1.58 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-D. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Beşiktaş are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Giresunspor.
Venue Form
On home soil, Giresunspor have posted 1.32 PPG from 22 outings (8W 5D 9L).
On the road, Beşiktaş have gone 6W 10D 6L from 22 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Giresunspor are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.53 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş in 62%.
Last 45 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Giresunspor
Early Season
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Giresunspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Giresunspor have gone 14W 11D 20L in their last 45 games (1.18 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 18W 17D 10L in their last 45 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Giresunspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Giresunspor's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Giresunspor at home: 1.32 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Beşiktaş go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when Giresunspor won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Giresunspor's record when hosting Beşiktaş specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Giresunspor
1
Draws
2
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Giresunspor and Beşiktaş?
From 4 meetings on record, Giresunspor have won 1, Beşiktaş have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Giresunspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2023, when Beşiktaş 3-1 Giresunspor.
Who has won more matches between Giresunspor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Giresunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Giresunspor 50%, Beşiktaş 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Giresunspor) and 50% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Giresunspor have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Giresunspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Giresunspor play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Giresunspor's games and 68% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Giresunspor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Giresunspor's recent games and 50% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Giresunspor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Giresunspor have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Beşiktaş defy the odds to beat Giresunspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Giresunspor 0-1 at Çotanak Stadyumu, Regular Season - 9, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Giresunspor 1.54 xG and Beşiktaş 1.48 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Giresunspor fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Giresunspor attack 0.91 / defence 0.95 against Beşiktaş attack 1.25 / defence 1.23, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Giresunspor 39% | Draw 25% | Beşiktaş 36%, with Giresunspor to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Beşiktaş win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Giresunspor 40%, Beşiktaş 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Giresunspor's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Giresunspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.