Giresunspor 1-1 Ankaragücü – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Giresunspor at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Giresunspor vs Ankaragücü fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Giresunspor and Ankaragücü meet at Çotanak Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Monday 24 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Giresunspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Giresunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Çotanak Stadyumu, Giresunspor have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Giresunspor are significantly better at Çotanak Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Ankaragücü have collected 0.78 PPG across 9 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.89 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ankaragücü, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ankaragücü's away record: 1W 0D 3L from 4 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.78 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Giresunspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Ankaragücü goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Giresunspor 33% versus Ankaragücü 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Giresunspor 33% | Ankaragücü 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Giresunspor 1.38 xG and Ankaragücü 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Giresunspor attack 0.811 / defence 0.907 | Ankaragücü attack 0.807 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.278. Ankaragücü bring a strong defensive rating of 1.246 — this is suppressing Giresunspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Giresunspor games / 9 Ankaragücü games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Giresunspor 47% | Draw 27% | Ankaragücü 26%. Fair-value odds: Giresunspor 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Ankaragücü 3.85. Giresunspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Giresunspor at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Giresunspor if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: Giresunspor 50% | Ankaragücü 75% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Giresunspor vs Ankaragücü | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Çotanak Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 24 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Giresunspor 47% | Draw 27% | Ankaragücü 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG Giresunspor 1.38 / Ankaragücü 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Giresunspor attack 0.811 / def 0.907 | Ankaragücü attack 0.807 / def 1.246 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: Giresunspor (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Giresunspor xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Ankaragücü xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Giresunspor vs Ankaragücü kick off?
Giresunspor vs Ankaragücü kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 24 October 2022 at Çotanak Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Giresunspor vs Ankaragücü?
Giresunspor 1 - 1 Ankaragücü.
Where is Giresunspor vs Ankaragücü being played?
The match is being played at Çotanak Stadyumu.
What competition is Giresunspor vs Ankaragücü part of?
Giresunspor vs Ankaragücü is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Giresunspor vs Ankaragücü?
Our statistical model gives Giresunspor a 47% chance of winning, Ankaragücü a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Giresunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Giresunspor vs Ankaragücü?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Giresunspor and Ankaragücü will score (BTTS).
Will Giresunspor vs Ankaragücü have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Giresunspor and Ankaragücü?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Giresunspor and Ankaragücü in?
Giresunspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Ankaragücü (all comps): 2W-1D-6L in 9 | 0.78 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.89 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Giresunspor's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Ankaragücü's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — Ankaragücü's attack (0.81x) against Giresunspor's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 47/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Giresunspor Win
47%
2.12
27%
3.65
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Giresunspor xG
Total xG
2.31
0.94
Ankaragücü xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
18%
5.41
6%
15.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.7 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Giresunspor vs Ankaragücü?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Giresunspor and Ankaragücü expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Giresunspor and 0.94 for Ankaragücü, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Giresunspor vs Ankaragücü?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 9 outings, Giresunspor have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 2W 2D 5L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Giresunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ankaragücü's form line: 2W 1D 6L from 9 games, 0.78 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Ankaragücü is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.89 PPG for Giresunspor against 0.78 for Ankaragücü. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Giresunspor have posted 0.75 PPG from 4 outings (1W 0D 3L).
On the road, Ankaragücü have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Giresunspor are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Ankaragücü are on 1.00 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ankaragücü in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Giresunspor
Blended
Ankaragücü
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Giresunspor and Ankaragücü in coming into this match?
Giresunspor have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 games (0.89 PPG), while Ankaragücü have gone 2W 1D 6L in their last 9 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Giresunspor at home or Ankaragücü away?
Giresunspor's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Giresunspor at home: 0.75 PPG; Ankaragücü away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Giresunspor
1
Draws
1
Ankaragücü
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Giresunspor and Ankaragücü?
From 2 meetings on record, Giresunspor have won 0, Ankaragücü have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Giresunspor and Ankaragücü last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2023, when Ankaragücü 3-1 Giresunspor.
Who has won more matches between Giresunspor and Ankaragücü?
Ankaragücü have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Giresunspor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Ankaragücü see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Giresunspor 25%, Ankaragücü 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Giresunspor) and 75% (Ankaragücü).
On the defensive side: Giresunspor have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Giresunspor home games / Ankaragücü away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Giresunspor play Ankaragücü?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Giresunspor's recent matches and 75% of Ankaragücü's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Giresunspor vs Ankaragücü usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Giresunspor's recent games and 75% of Ankaragücü's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Giresunspor and Ankaragücü share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Giresunspor and Ankaragücü finished level at 1-1 at Çotanak Stadyumu, Regular Season - 11, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Giresunspor 1.38 xG and Ankaragücü 0.94 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Giresunspor attack 0.81 / defence 0.91 against Ankaragücü attack 0.81 / defence 1.25, drawn from 47/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Giresunspor 47% | Draw 27% | Ankaragücü 26%, with Giresunspor to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Giresunspor 33%, Ankaragücü 78%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Giresunspor's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Ankaragücü's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Giresunspor 0.89 PPG, Ankaragücü 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ankaragücü (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.