Gaziantep FK 1-1 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gaziantep FK at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gaziantep FK host Alanyaspor at Gaziantep Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 August 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Gaziantep FK — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Gaziantep FK haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Gaziantep FK's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Gaziantep Stadyumu this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alanyaspor stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Alanyaspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Alanyaspor's away record: 0W 7D 3L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Gaziantep FK) versus 1.10 (Alanyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Alanyaspor have the better historical record — 6 wins from 9 previous contests against 1 for Gaziantep FK.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Alanyaspor have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Gaziantep FK trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Alanyaspor trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Gaziantep FK 62% and Alanyaspor 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 68% | Alanyaspor 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.41 xG and Alanyaspor 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 0.941 / defence 1.050 | Alanyaspor attack 0.935 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.184. Data: 34 Gaziantep FK games / 34 Alanyaspor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 41% | Draw 30% | Alanyaspor 29%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Alanyaspor 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gaziantep FK are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gaziantep FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Gaziantep FK 70% | Alanyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Gaziantep Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Aug 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 41% | Draw 30% | Alanyaspor 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Gaziantep FK 1.41 / Alanyaspor 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 0.941 / def 1.050 | Alanyaspor attack 0.935 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.558 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Gaziantep FK (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Alanyaspor xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 15 August 2026 at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor?
Gaziantep FK 1 - 1 Alanyaspor.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 41% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Gaziantep FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor?
Record (9 meetings): Gaziantep FK 1W | Draws 2 | Alanyaspor 6W.
What form are Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Gaziantep FK (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Gaziantep FK's attack at 0.94x the league average against Alanyaspor's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Gaziantep FK's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gaziantep FK Win
41%
2.45
30%
3.30
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
2.58
1.16
Alanyaspor xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
13%
7.84
7%
14.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.5 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.16 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gaziantep FK's recent record stands at 9W 10D 15L from 34 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. Gaziantep FK haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Alanyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 7W 16D 11L across 34 games — 1.09 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five. Alanyaspor haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gaziantep FK on 1.09 PPG, Alanyaspor on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Gaziantep FK have managed 5W 5D 7L from 17 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Alanyaspor's away record stands at 1W 11D 5L across 17 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.21 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gaziantep FK have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Alanyaspor in 62%.
Last 34 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Pre-Season
Alanyaspor
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 9W 10D 15L in their last 34 games (1.09 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 7W 16D 11L in their last 34 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Alanyaspor away?
Gaziantep FK's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 1.18 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2022, when Alanyaspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gaziantep FK's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Gaziantep FK
3
Draws
6
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Gaziantep FK have won 1, Alanyaspor have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Gaziantep FK 1-1 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Gaziantep FK at 65%, Alanyaspor at 76%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Gaziantep FK) and 47% (Alanyaspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gaziantep FK play Alanyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Gaziantep FK's games and 76% of Alanyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Gaziantep FK's matches and 47% of Alanyaspor's.
Do Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Gaziantep FK have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Regular Season - 1, as Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.41 xG and Alanyaspor 1.16 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.94 / defence 1.05 against Alanyaspor attack 0.94 / defence 0.96, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 41% | Draw 30% | Alanyaspor 29%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 68%, Alanyaspor 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gaziantep FK 1.09 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.