Gaziantep FK 0-3 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gaziantep FK at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gaziantep FK vs Adana Demirspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gaziantep FK and Adana Demirspor meet at Gaziantep Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 20 February 2022 at 10:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gaziantep FK have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Gaziantep FK have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Gaziantep FK are significantly better at Gaziantep Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Adana Demirspor (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Adana Demirspor have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 2.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Gaziantep FK register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Adana Demirspor in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Gaziantep FK lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 0–4 with Adana Demirspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Gaziantep FK — key trading statistics (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Adana Demirspor — key trading statistics (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 46% versus Adana Demirspor 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 46% | Adana Demirspor 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 2.04 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 1.517 / defence 1.065 | Adana Demirspor attack 1.111 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.123. Gaziantep FK carry an above-average attack strength of 1.517 — their λ of 2.04 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 24 Gaziantep FK games / 25 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 53% | Draw 22% | Adana Demirspor 24%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 1.89 | Draw 4.55 | Adana Demirspor 4.17. Gaziantep FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gaziantep FK are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gaziantep FK if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.37 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gaziantep FK 70% | Adana Demirspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Gaziantep Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Feb 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 53% | Draw 22% | Adana Demirspor 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 64% | xG Gaziantep FK 2.04 / Adana Demirspor 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 1.517 / def 1.065 | Adana Demirspor attack 1.111 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Gaziantep FK (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Adana Demirspor xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 20 February 2022 at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Adana Demirspor?
Gaziantep FK 0 - 3 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 53% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 24% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Gaziantep FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Adana Demirspor?
Record (1 meetings): Gaziantep FK 0W | Draws 0 | Adana Demirspor 1W.
What form are Gaziantep FK and Adana Demirspor in?
Gaziantep FK (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Gaziantep FK's attacking strength (1.52x league average) is weighed against Adana Demirspor's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.04. Flip it around — Adana Demirspor's attack (1.11x) against Gaziantep FK's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 24/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gaziantep FK Win
53%
1.87
22%
4.48
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
3.37
1.33
Adana Demirspor xG
1.87
53%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
13%
7.66
Win to Nil
14%
7.08
3%
31.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.33 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gaziantep FK's recent record stands at 10W 5D 9L from 24 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Adana Demirspor, meanwhile, have gone 11W 8D 5L across 24 games — 1.71 PPG, with D-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Gaziantep FK against 1.71 for Adana Demirspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Gaziantep FK have managed 9W 2D 0L from 11 games — 2.64 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.46 PPG overall — Gaziantep FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Adana Demirspor's away record stands at 5W 3D 3L across 11 trips, a 1.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gaziantep FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.62 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Adana Demirspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gaziantep FK and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 10W 5D 9L in their last 24 games (1.46 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 11W 8D 5L in their last 24 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Gaziantep FK's home record (2.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 2.64 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 1.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gaziantep FK won 1-6 on 12 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gaziantep FK have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Adana Demirspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Gaziantep FK
3
Draws
3
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Adana Demirspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Gaziantep FK have won 2, Adana Demirspor have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2025, when Adana Demirspor 2-2 Gaziantep FK.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Adana Demirspor?
Adana Demirspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gaziantep FK see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for Gaziantep FK, 82% for Adana Demirspor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Gaziantep FK) and 64% (Adana Demirspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gaziantep FK play Adana Demirspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Gaziantep FK's games and 82% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gaziantep FK vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Gaziantep FK's matches and 64% of Adana Demirspor's.
Do Gaziantep FK and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Gaziantep FK have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Adana Demirspor run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Gaziantep FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Adana Demirspor beat Gaziantep FK 0-3 at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 2.04 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.33 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Gaziantep FK fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Adana Demirspor outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 1.52 / defence 1.06 against Adana Demirspor attack 1.11 / defence 1.16, drawn from 24/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 53% | Draw 22% | Adana Demirspor 24%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Adana Demirspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 46%, Adana Demirspor 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gaziantep FK 1.46 PPG, Adana Demirspor 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Adana Demirspor win broke the near-deadlock. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.36 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.