Göztepe 2-1 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Göztepe at 35%, yet in-form Sivasspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Göztepe vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sivasspor make the trip to Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı to face Göztepe in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Wednesday 19 January 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Göztepe have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Göztepe at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Sivasspor (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sivasspor away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Sivasspor are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Göztepe 0W, Sivasspor 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Göztepe — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
Sivasspor — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Göztepe 67% and Sivasspor 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 52% | Sivasspor 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.08 xG and Sivasspor 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 0.875 / defence 1.093 | Sivasspor attack 0.887 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.138 / away 1.098. Data: 21 Göztepe games / 21 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Göztepe 35% | Draw 30% | Sivasspor 35%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Sivasspor 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Göztepe 40% | Sivasspor 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı • Kick-off: Wednesday 19 Jan 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 35% | Draw 30% | Sivasspor 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Göztepe 1.08 / Sivasspor 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 0.875 / def 1.093 | Sivasspor attack 0.887 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.138 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Sivasspor xG
44%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Göztepe vs Sivasspor kick off?
Göztepe vs Sivasspor kicked off at 14:00 on Wednesday 19 January 2022 at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı.
What was the final score in Göztepe vs Sivasspor?
Göztepe 2 - 1 Sivasspor.
Where is Göztepe vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı.
What competition is Göztepe vs Sivasspor part of?
Göztepe vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 35% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Göztepe and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Göztepe vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Sivasspor?
Record (1 meetings): Göztepe 0W | Draws 1 | Sivasspor 0W.
What form are Göztepe and Sivasspor in?
Göztepe (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Sivasspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Göztepe's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Sivasspor's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. Flip it around — Sivasspor's attack (0.89x) against Göztepe's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Göztepe Win
35%
2.84
30%
3.30
35%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Göztepe xG
Total xG
2.14
1.06
Sivasspor xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.90
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
12%
8.24
12%
8.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 12.5 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Göztepe and 1.06 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Göztepe come into this having played 21 games, going 5W 6D 10L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-W. The sample for Göztepe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sivasspor sit at 1.43 PPG from 21 outings (7W 9D 5L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sivasspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Göztepe — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Göztepe's home form reads 3W 2D 5L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Sivasspor have taken 1.40 points per game from 10 outings (4W 2D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Göztepe are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.33 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Göztepe have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Göztepe and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 5W 6D 10L in their last 21 games (1.00 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 7W 9D 5L in their last 21 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Göztepe at home or Sivasspor away?
Sivasspor's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Göztepe at home: 1.10 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Göztepe or Sivasspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 5% of their recent games, Sivasspor in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Göztepe have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sivasspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Göztepe
1
Draws
1
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Sivasspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Göztepe have won 2, Sivasspor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2025, when Sivasspor 3-1 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Göztepe and Sivasspor?
Göztepe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Göztepe 40%, Sivasspor 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Göztepe) and 50% (Sivasspor).
On the defensive side: Göztepe have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Göztepe play Sivasspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Göztepe's recent matches and 60% of Sivasspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Göztepe vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Göztepe's recent games and 50% of Sivasspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Göztepe and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Göztepe have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Göztepe edge out Sivasspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Göztepe beat Sivasspor 2-1 at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.08 xG and Sivasspor 1.06 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Göztepe beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 0.88 / defence 1.09 against Sivasspor attack 0.89 / defence 1.08, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Göztepe 35% | Draw 30% | Sivasspor 35%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 52%, Sivasspor 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Göztepe's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Sivasspor's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sivasspor arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Göztepe winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Göztepe (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Sivasspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.