Göztepe vs Konyaspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Göztepe at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Göztepe vs Konyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 15 as Göztepe welcome Konyaspor to . Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 December 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Göztepe stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Göztepe at this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Konyaspor — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Göztepe carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Göztepe have won 1, Konyaspor 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 6 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Göztepe trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Konyaspor trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Göztepe 50% versus Konyaspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 50% | Konyaspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.38 xG and Konyaspor 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 0.982 / defence 1.069 | Konyaspor attack 0.760 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.253. Data: 44 Göztepe games / 44 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Göztepe 45% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 28%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Konyaspor 3.57. Göztepe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Konyaspor lead the H2H ledger, but Göztepe carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Göztepe as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Göztepe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Göztepe 60% | Konyaspor 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Dec 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 45% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Göztepe 1.38 / Konyaspor 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 0.982 / def 1.069 | Konyaspor attack 0.760 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Göztepe (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Konyaspor xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Göztepe vs Konyaspor kick off?
Göztepe vs Konyaspor is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Sunday 13 December 2026.
What competition is Göztepe vs Konyaspor part of?
Göztepe vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 45% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Göztepe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Göztepe and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Göztepe vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Konyaspor?
Record (6 meetings): Göztepe 1W | Draws 2 | Konyaspor 3W.
What form are Göztepe and Konyaspor in?
Göztepe (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Konyaspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Göztepe's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Konyaspor's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Konyaspor's attack versus Göztepe's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Göztepe Win
45%
2.21
27%
3.69
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Göztepe xG
Total xG
2.40
1.02
Konyaspor xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
16%
6.11
7%
14.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.8 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Göztepe and 1.02 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Göztepe come into this having played 44 games, going 18W 16D 10L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Göztepe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Konyaspor sit at 1.09 PPG from 44 outings (12W 12D 20L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Göztepe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Göztepe's home form reads 9W 8D 4L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Konyaspor have taken 0.81 points per game from 21 outings (4W 5D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Göztepe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Göztepe are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.11 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Göztepe and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 18W 16D 10L in their last 44 games (1.59 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 12W 12D 20L in their last 44 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Göztepe at home or Konyaspor away?
Göztepe's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Göztepe at home: 1.67 PPG; Konyaspor away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Göztepe or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Göztepe and Konyaspor runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Apr 2022, when Konyaspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Göztepe's record when hosting Konyaspor specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Göztepe
2
Draws
3
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Konyaspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Göztepe have won 1, Konyaspor have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Konyaspor 0-0 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Göztepe and Konyaspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Göztepe 48%, Konyaspor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Göztepe) and 57% (Konyaspor).
On the defensive side: Göztepe keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Konyaspor in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Göztepe play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Göztepe's games and 67% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Göztepe vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Göztepe's recent games and 57% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Göztepe and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Göztepe have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.