Göztepe 1-1 Eyüpspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Göztepe at 55%, yet in-form Eyüpspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Göztepe vs Eyüpspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu plays host to Göztepe versus Eyüpspor in Süper Lig (matchday 28). Kick-off: Sunday 16 March 2025 at 13:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Göztepe have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Göztepe's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Göztepe are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Eyüpspor's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Eyüpspor's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Eyüpspor are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Eyüpspor edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2024, ended Göztepe 0–1 Eyüpspor — a Eyüpspor win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Göztepe half-time and goal-timing data (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Eyüpspor half-time and goal-timing data (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Göztepe 56% versus Eyüpspor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 60% | Eyüpspor 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.82 xG and Eyüpspor 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 1.115 / defence 0.933 | Eyüpspor attack 0.956 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.623 / away 1.195. Data: built from Göztepe's last 25 games and Eyüpspor's last 26.
Result probabilities: Göztepe 55% | Draw 23% | Eyüpspor 22%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 1.82 | Draw 4.32 | Eyüpspor 4.57. The model has a clear lean to Göztepe (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Göztepe as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Eyüpspor (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Göztepe's last 10 home games and Eyüpspor's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Göztepe 40% (last 10 home games) | Eyüpspor 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 28 | Venue: Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 16 March 2025 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 55% | Draw 23% | Eyüpspor 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Göztepe 1.82 / Eyüpspor 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 1.115 / def 0.933 | Eyüpspor attack 0.956 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.623 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Göztepe (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Eyüpspor xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Göztepe vs Eyüpspor FAQs
What time does Göztepe vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Göztepe vs Eyüpspor kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 16 March 2025 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Göztepe vs Eyüpspor?
Göztepe 1 - 1 Eyüpspor.
Where is Göztepe vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What competition is Göztepe vs Eyüpspor part of?
Göztepe vs Eyüpspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 28) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 55% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Göztepe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Göztepe and Eyüpspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Göztepe vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Göztepe's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Eyüpspor's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. Flip it around — Eyüpspor's attack (0.96x) against Göztepe's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from Göztepe's last 25 games and Eyüpspor's last 26 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Göztepe Win
55%
1.82
23%
4.32
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Göztepe xG
Total xG
2.89
1.07
Eyüpspor xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
16%
6.19
Win to Nil
19%
5.28
4%
28.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.8 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Göztepe vs Eyüpspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Göztepe and 1.07 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Eyüpspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Göztepe's recent record stands at 10W 6D 9L from 25 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five.
Eyüpspor, meanwhile, have gone 12W 6D 7L across 25 games — 1.68 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Göztepe against 1.68 for Eyüpspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Göztepe have managed 9W 2D 1L from their last 12 home games — 2.42 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Göztepe are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Eyüpspor's away record stands at 4W 3D 5L across their last 12 away games, a 1.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.68 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Eyüpspor's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Göztepe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Göztepe are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 1.52 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Eyüpspor in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Blended
Eyüpspor
Blended
Göztepe (Home) vs Eyüpspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Göztepe
Blended
Eyüpspor
Blended
❓ Göztepe vs Eyüpspor Form FAQs
What form are Göztepe and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 10W 6D 9L in their last 25 games (1.44 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 12W 6D 7L in their last 25 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Göztepe at home or Eyüpspor away?
Göztepe's home record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Göztepe at home: 2.42 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Göztepe or Eyüpspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Eyüpspor in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 12 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Göztepe won Eyüpspor 0-4 Göztepe on 12 Oct 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Göztepe have gone 0W 2D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Eyüpspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Göztepe
3
Draws
1
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Göztepe vs Eyüpspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Eyüpspor?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Göztepe have won 1, Eyüpspor have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Eyüpspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 October 2026: Eyüpspor 0-4 Göztepe.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Göztepe 42%, Eyüpspor 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Göztepe) and 50% (Eyüpspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Göztepe keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Göztepe vs Eyüpspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Göztepe and Eyüpspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Göztepe's recent matches and 58% of Eyüpspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Göztepe and Eyüpspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Göztepe's matches and 50% of Eyüpspor's.
Do Göztepe and Eyüpspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Göztepe's recent matches and 67% of Eyüpspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Göztepe and Eyüpspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 28, as Göztepe and Eyüpspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.82 xG and Eyüpspor 1.07 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Göztepe fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 1.11 / defence 0.93 against Eyüpspor attack 0.96 / defence 1.01, drawn from 25/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Göztepe 55% | Draw 23% | Eyüpspor 22%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 60%, Eyüpspor 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Göztepe's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Eyüpspor's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Göztepe 1.44 PPG, Eyüpspor 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Göztepe (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.