Fenerbahçe 2-1 Altay – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fenerbahçe vs Altay encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 22 as Fenerbahçe welcome Altay to Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 19 January 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Fenerbahçe have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fenerbahçe have posted 5W 3D 2L at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Altay — All Games: 0W 2D 8L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Altay, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Altay's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Fenerbahçe have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Fenerbahçe register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Altay in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Fenerbahçe, 0 for Altay and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 2–0 with Fenerbahçe winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Fenerbahçe trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Altay trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fenerbahçe 71% and Altay 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 57% | Altay 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 1.83 xG and Altay 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.172 / defence 1.240 | Altay attack 0.736 / defence 1.371. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.090. Altay bring a strong defensive rating of 1.371 — this is suppressing Fenerbahçe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Fenerbahçe games / 21 Altay games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 57% | Draw 23% | Altay 20%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | Altay 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fenerbahçe are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fenerbahçe 70% | Altay 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Altay | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Wednesday 19 Jan 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 57% | Draw 23% | Altay 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG Fenerbahçe 1.83 / Altay 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.172 / def 1.240 | Altay attack 0.736 / def 1.371 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Altay xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Altay kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Altay kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 19 January 2022 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Altay?
Fenerbahçe 2 - 1 Altay.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Altay being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Altay part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Altay is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Altay?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 57% chance of winning, Altay a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Altay?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Altay will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Altay have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Altay?
Record (1 meetings): Fenerbahçe 1W | Draws 0 | Altay 0W.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Altay in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-L-D. Altay (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Fenerbahçe's attack at 1.17x the league average against Altay's defence at 1.37x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Altay's attack versus Fenerbahçe's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
57%
1.75
23%
4.40
20%
4.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
2.83
0.99
Altay xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
4.95
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
16%
6.26
Win to Nil
21%
4.73
3%
30.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 10.8 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Altay?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Altay expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 0.99 for Altay, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Altay?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fenerbahçe's recent record stands at 9W 6D 6L from 21 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Altay, meanwhile, have gone 5W 3D 13L across 21 games — 0.86 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Altay is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Altay heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Fenerbahçe have managed 5W 3D 2L from 10 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Altay's away record stands at 1W 2D 7L across 10 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fenerbahçe are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Altay are on 1.10 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fenerbahçe have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Altay in 62%.
Last 21 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Altay
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Altay in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 9W 6D 6L in their last 21 games (1.57 PPG), while Altay have gone 5W 3D 13L in their last 21 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Altay away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 1.80 PPG; Altay away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Fenerbahçe
0
Draws
0
Altay
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Altay?
From 2 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 2, Altay have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Altay last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2022, when Fenerbahçe 2-1 Altay.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Altay?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Altay are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Fenerbahçe at 70%, Altay at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Fenerbahçe and 60% for Altay. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Altay in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Altay away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Altay?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Fenerbahçe's games and 60% of Altay's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Altay usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 60% of Altay's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Altay tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Altay in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fenerbahçe edge out Altay 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Altay 2-1 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 1.83 xG and Altay 0.99 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.17 / defence 1.24 against Altay attack 0.74 / defence 1.37, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 57% | Draw 23% | Altay 20%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 57%, Altay 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Altay's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.86. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.