Fatih Karagümrük 4-1 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 39%, yet in-form Trabzonspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 16 as Fatih Karagümrük welcome Trabzonspor to Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 28 December 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fatih Karagümrük — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fatih Karagümrük at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Trabzonspor's 1.90 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Fatih Karagümrük's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Fatih Karagümrük, 1 for Trabzonspor and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Fatih Karagümrük in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 54% versus Trabzonspor 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 56% | Trabzonspor 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.72 xG and Trabzonspor 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.118 / defence 1.159 | Trabzonspor attack 1.057 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.390. Data: 52 Fatih Karagümrük games / 52 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 39% | Draw 24% | Trabzonspor 38%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 2.56 | Draw 4.17 | Trabzonspor 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fatih Karagümrük are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Trabzonspor (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.43 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fatih Karagümrük 70% | Trabzonspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Dec 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 39% | Draw 24% | Trabzonspor 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 68% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.72 / Trabzonspor 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.118 / def 1.159 | Trabzonspor attack 1.057 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Trabzonspor xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 28 December 2022 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor?
Fatih Karagümrük 4 - 1 Trabzonspor.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 39% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor?
Record (2 meetings): Fatih Karagümrük 0W | Draws 1 | Trabzonspor 1W.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Trabzonspor (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Fatih Karagümrük's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Trabzonspor's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Fatih Karagümrük's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
39%
2.59
24%
4.22
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
3.43
1.70
Trabzonspor xG
2.59
39%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.10
Clean Sheet
18%
5.49
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
7%
14.24
7%
14.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 9.5 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.2 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.70 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fatih Karagümrük's recent record stands at 19W 13D 20L from 52 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor, meanwhile, have gone 30W 17D 5L across 52 games — 2.06 PPG, with D-W-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Trabzonspor by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fatih Karagümrük heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Fatih Karagümrük have managed 12W 7D 7L from 26 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Trabzonspor's away record stands at 14W 7D 5L across 26 trips, a 1.88 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.73 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor in 63%.
Defensively: Trabzonspor in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 19W 13D 20L in their last 52 games (1.35 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 30W 17D 5L in their last 52 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Trabzonspor away?
Trabzonspor's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.65 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Fatih Karagümrük or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fatih Karagümrük have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Trabzonspor have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Mar 2024, when Trabzonspor won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fatih Karagümrük's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Fatih Karagümrük
2
Draws
5
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 1, Trabzonspor have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Trabzonspor 3-1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 54%, Trabzonspor 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Fatih Karagümrük) and 58% (Trabzonspor).
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Trabzonspor in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Fatih Karagümrük's games and 69% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent games and 58% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fatih Karagümrük run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Trabzonspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük beat Trabzonspor 4-1 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.72 xG and Trabzonspor 1.70 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.12 / defence 1.16 against Trabzonspor attack 1.06 / defence 1.04, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 39% | Draw 24% | Trabzonspor 38%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 56%, Trabzonspor 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.35. Form was overturned, with Fatih Karagümrük winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.