Fatih Karagümrük 1-1 Kocaelispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Fatih Karagümrük take on Kocaelispor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kocaelispor make the trip to Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı to face Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Sunday 14 December 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fatih Karagümrük's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 1W 1D 6L this season (8 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Kocaelispor have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Kocaelispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kocaelispor's away record: 1W 1D 5L from 7 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.57 PPG). Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.57 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Kocaelispor arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Fatih Karagümrük — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Kocaelispor — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 40% versus Kocaelispor 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fatih Karagümrük 47% | Kocaelispor 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.13 xG and Kocaelispor 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.796 / defence 1.242 | Kocaelispor attack 0.714 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.302. Fatih Karagümrük's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 Fatih Karagümrük games / 15 Kocaelispor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 31% | Draw 36% | Kocaelispor 32%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 3.23 | Draw 2.78 | Kocaelispor 3.12. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Fatih Karagümrük 25% | Kocaelispor 43% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Kocaelispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Dec 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 31% | Draw 36% | Kocaelispor 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 50% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.13 / Kocaelispor 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.796 / def 1.242 | Kocaelispor attack 0.714 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Kocaelispor xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Kocaelispor kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Kocaelispor kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 14 December 2025 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Kocaelispor?
Fatih Karagümrük 1 - 1 Kocaelispor.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Kocaelispor being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Kocaelispor part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Kocaelispor is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Kocaelispor?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 31% chance of winning, Kocaelispor a 32% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Kocaelispor?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Kocaelispor will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Kocaelispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Kocaelispor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Kocaelispor in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Kocaelispor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Fatih Karagümrük's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Kocaelispor's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. Flip it around — Kocaelispor's attack (0.71x) against Fatih Karagümrük's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.20
36%
2.74
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.29
1.16
Kocaelispor xG
3.20
31%
Home win
2.74
36%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
10%
10.17
10%
9.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 11.7 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Kocaelispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Kocaelispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.16 for Kocaelispor, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Kocaelispor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fatih Karagümrük come into this having played 15 games, going 2W 2D 11L for 0.53 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kocaelispor sit at 1.27 PPG from 15 outings (5W 4D 6L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Kocaelispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kocaelispor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Fatih Karagümrük's home form reads 1W 1D 5L across 7 games on their own ground, a 0.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Kocaelispor have taken 0.57 points per game from 7 outings (1W 1D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kocaelispor's season.
Attack vs Defence
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Kocaelispor are on 0.80 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Kocaelispor in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Kocaelispor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Kocaelispor in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 2W 2D 11L in their last 15 games (0.53 PPG), while Kocaelispor have gone 5W 4D 6L in their last 15 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Kocaelispor away?
Fatih Karagümrük's home record (0.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 0.57 PPG; Kocaelispor away: 0.57 PPG.
Have Fatih Karagümrük or Kocaelispor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fatih Karagümrük have kept a clean sheet in 7% of their recent games, Kocaelispor in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Fatih Karagümrük
1
Draws
0
Kocaelispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Kocaelispor?
From 2 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 1, Kocaelispor have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Kocaelispor last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Kocaelispor 0-1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Kocaelispor?
Fatih Karagümrük have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Kocaelispor see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 29%, Kocaelispor 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Fatih Karagümrük) and 43% (Kocaelispor).
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük have failed to score in 57% of games; Kocaelispor in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Kocaelispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Kocaelispor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 43% of Kocaelispor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Kocaelispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent games and 43% of Kocaelispor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Kocaelispor tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Kocaelispor in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fatih Karagümrük and Kocaelispor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük and Kocaelispor finished level at 1-1 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.13 xG and Kocaelispor 1.16 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.80 / defence 1.24 against Kocaelispor attack 0.71 / defence 1.14, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 31% | Draw 36% | Kocaelispor 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 47%, Kocaelispor 20%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Kocaelispor's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Kocaelispor arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.53. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.