Fatih Karagümrük 0-1 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees Alanyaspor travel to Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı to take on Fatih Karagümrük. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 May 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 7W 2D 1L at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
Alanyaspor — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fatih Karagümrük 1.80 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Fatih Karagümrük have won 0, Alanyaspor 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Fatih Karagümrük trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Alanyaspor trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 49% versus Alanyaspor 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 51% | Alanyaspor 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.57 xG and Alanyaspor 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.079 / defence 0.917 | Alanyaspor attack 0.918 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.204 / away 1.371. Alanyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing Fatih Karagümrük's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Fatih Karagümrük games / 37 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 44% | Draw 30% | Alanyaspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Alanyaspor 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fatih Karagümrük as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Fatih Karagümrük 40% | Alanyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 44% | Draw 30% | Alanyaspor 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.57 / Alanyaspor 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.079 / def 0.917 | Alanyaspor attack 0.918 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.204 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Alanyaspor xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 22 May 2022 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor?
Fatih Karagümrük 0 - 1 Alanyaspor.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 44% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor?
Record (1 meetings): Fatih Karagümrük 0W | Draws 1 | Alanyaspor 0W.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Alanyaspor (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Fatih Karagümrük's attack at 1.08x the league average against Alanyaspor's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Fatih Karagümrük's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
44%
2.26
30%
3.29
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.73
1.16
Alanyaspor xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
14%
7.16
5%
19.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.9 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.16 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fatih Karagümrük come into this having played 37 games, going 16W 9D 12L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 1.65 PPG from 37 outings (18W 7D 12L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fatih Karagümrük on 1.54 PPG, Alanyaspor on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Fatih Karagümrük's home form reads 10W 5D 3L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Alanyaspor have taken 1.67 points per game from 18 outings (9W 3D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.78 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Current Season
Alanyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 16W 9D 12L in their last 37 games (1.54 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 18W 7D 12L in their last 37 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Alanyaspor away?
Fatih Karagümrük's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.94 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Fatih Karagümrük's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Fatih Karagümrük
3
Draws
4
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 1, Alanyaspor have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Fatih Karagümrük 2-1 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 50%, Alanyaspor 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Fatih Karagümrük) and 56% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Alanyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 56% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent games and 56% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Alanyaspor defy the odds to beat Fatih Karagümrük 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Fatih Karagümrük 0-1 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 38, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.57 xG and Alanyaspor 1.16 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Fatih Karagümrük fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.08 / defence 0.92 against Alanyaspor attack 0.92 / defence 1.21, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 44% | Draw 30% | Alanyaspor 25%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Alanyaspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 51%, Alanyaspor 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fatih Karagümrük 1.54 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.