Fatih Karagümrük 1-1 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Alanyaspor travel to Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı to take on Fatih Karagümrük. The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 February 2024, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 6W 2D 2L at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Fatih Karagümrük are significantly better at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı than their overall form suggests.
Alanyaspor — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fatih Karagümrük 1.10 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Alanyaspor have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 5 encounters against Fatih Karagümrük's 0 victories.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2023, ended 1–2 with Alanyaspor winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Alanyaspor have won 3 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Fatih Karagümrük trading profile (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Alanyaspor trading profile (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 58% versus Alanyaspor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 60% | Alanyaspor 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.74 xG and Alanyaspor 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.154 / defence 0.799 | Alanyaspor attack 0.928 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.198. Fatih Karagümrük's defence rating of 0.799 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 62 Fatih Karagümrük games / 62 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 55% | Draw 29% | Alanyaspor 16%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 1.82 | Draw 3.45 | Alanyaspor 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Fatih Karagümrük (55%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fatih Karagümrük as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: Fatih Karagümrük 30% | Alanyaspor 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Feb 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 55% | Draw 29% | Alanyaspor 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.74 / Alanyaspor 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.154 / def 0.799 | Alanyaspor attack 0.928 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Alanyaspor xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 25 February 2024 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor?
Fatih Karagümrük 1 - 1 Alanyaspor.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 55% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 16% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor?
Record (5 meetings): Fatih Karagümrük 0W | Draws 2 | Alanyaspor 3W.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Alanyaspor (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Fatih Karagümrük's attack at 1.15x the league average against Alanyaspor's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Fatih Karagümrük's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
55%
1.82
29%
3.49
16%
6.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.63
0.89
Alanyaspor xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
6.08
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
23%
4.43
3%
34.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 11.2 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 0.89 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fatih Karagümrük come into this having played 62 games, going 20W 19D 23L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-D. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 1.13 PPG from 62 outings (17W 19D 26L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fatih Karagümrük on 1.27 PPG, Alanyaspor on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Fatih Karagümrük's home form reads 13W 9D 9L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Alanyaspor have taken 0.77 points per game from 31 outings (5W 9D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fatih Karagümrük come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.37 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 20W 19D 23L in their last 62 games (1.27 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 17W 19D 26L in their last 62 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Alanyaspor away?
Fatih Karagümrük's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.55 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Fatih Karagümrük's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Fatih Karagümrük
3
Draws
4
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 1, Alanyaspor have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Fatih Karagümrük 2-1 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 55%, Alanyaspor 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Fatih Karagümrük and 64% for Alanyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Alanyaspor in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Alanyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 55% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Fatih Karagümrük's matches and 64% of Alanyaspor's.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 27, as Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.74 xG and Alanyaspor 0.89 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.15 / defence 0.80 against Alanyaspor attack 0.93 / defence 1.01, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 55% | Draw 29% | Alanyaspor 16%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 60%, Alanyaspor 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fatih Karagümrük 1.27 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.