Eyüpspor vs Galatasaray – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Galatasaray (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Eyüpspor face Galatasaray.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 15 as Eyüpspor welcome Galatasaray to . Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 December 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Eyüpspor have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Eyüpspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at , Eyüpspor have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Galatasaray stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Galatasaray have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Galatasaray's away record: 6W 0D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Form points away from home here. Galatasaray's 2.00 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Eyüpspor's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Galatasaray have the better historical record — 3 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for Eyüpspor.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2026, ended 1–5 with Galatasaray winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Galatasaray have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 4.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Eyüpspor trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Galatasaray trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 43% versus Galatasaray 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 46% | Galatasaray 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.20 xG and Galatasaray 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.949 / defence 0.937 | Galatasaray attack 1.283 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.218. Galatasaray have an above-average attack strength of 1.283 — the away xG of 1.46 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 Eyüpspor games / 37 Galatasaray games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 31% | Draw 26% | Galatasaray 43%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Galatasaray 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Galatasaray at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Galatasaray offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Eyüpspor 40% | Galatasaray 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Galatasaray | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Dec 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 31% | Draw 26% | Galatasaray 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Eyüpspor 1.20 / Galatasaray 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.949 / def 0.937 | Galatasaray attack 1.283 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Galatasaray (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Galatasaray xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Galatasaray kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Galatasaray is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 13 December 2026.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Galatasaray part of?
Eyüpspor vs Galatasaray is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Galatasaray?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 31% chance of winning, Galatasaray a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Galatasaray the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Galatasaray?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Eyüpspor and Galatasaray will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Galatasaray have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Galatasaray?
Record (4 meetings): Eyüpspor 0W | Draws 1 | Galatasaray 3W.
What form are Eyüpspor and Galatasaray in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Galatasaray (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Eyüpspor's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Galatasaray's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Galatasaray's attack versus Eyüpspor's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Galatasaray Win
31%
3.21
26%
3.89
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.67
1.46
Galatasaray xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
7%
13.89
13%
7.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.2 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Galatasaray?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Galatasaray expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.46 for Galatasaray, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Galatasaray?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Eyüpspor's recent record stands at 9W 9D 19L from 37 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Eyüpspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Galatasaray, meanwhile, have gone 26W 6D 5L across 37 games — 2.27 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Galatasaray, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Galatasaray by 1.30 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Eyüpspor heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Eyüpspor have managed 6W 4D 8L from 18 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Galatasaray's away record stands at 12W 1D 5L across 18 trips, a 2.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Galatasaray come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Eyüpspor are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Galatasaray are on 2.32 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Galatasaray in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Early Season
Galatasaray
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Galatasaray in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 9W 9D 19L in their last 37 games (0.97 PPG), while Galatasaray have gone 26W 6D 5L in their last 37 (2.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Galatasaray away?
Galatasaray's away record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 1.22 PPG; Galatasaray away: 2.06 PPG.
Have Eyüpspor or Galatasaray been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Galatasaray in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Eyüpspor and Galatasaray runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Galatasaray have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Apr 2025, when Galatasaray won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eyüpspor's record when hosting Galatasaray specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Eyüpspor
1
Draws
3
Galatasaray
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Galatasaray?
From 4 meetings on record, Eyüpspor have won 0, Galatasaray have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Galatasaray last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Galatasaray 5-1 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Galatasaray?
Galatasaray have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Eyüpspor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Galatasaray are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 39%, Galatasaray 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Eyüpspor) and 61% (Galatasaray).
On the defensive side: Galatasaray in 39%; Eyüpspor have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Galatasaray away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Galatasaray?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 44% of Galatasaray's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eyüpspor vs Galatasaray usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Eyüpspor's recent games and 61% of Galatasaray's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eyüpspor and Galatasaray tend to score early?
Eyüpspor have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Galatasaray in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.