Eyüpspor 1-1 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Eyüpspor host Fenerbahçe at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 17). Kick-off is Friday 20 December 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Eyüpspor stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Eyüpspor have gone 5W 1D 1L in their last 7 home games (2.29 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 clean sheets from their last 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.29 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Eyüpspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Fenerbahçe have recorded 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fenerbahçe's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 road games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Fenerbahçe — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Eyüpspor in-play tendencies (last 16 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Fenerbahçe in-play tendencies (last 16 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; they lead at the break 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 56% versus Fenerbahçe 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 50% | Fenerbahçe 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.34 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.993 / defence 0.887 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.545 / defence 0.812. League average goals — home 1.661 / away 1.189. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack rating of 1.545, which lifts their away xG to 1.63. Data: built from Eyüpspor's last 16 games and Fenerbahçe's last 53.
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 30% | Draw 27% | Fenerbahçe 43%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 3.32 | Draw 3.71 | Fenerbahçe 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.34 / 1.63) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Eyüpspor's last 7 home games and Fenerbahçe's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Eyüpspor 43% (last 7 home games) | Fenerbahçe 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 17 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 20 December 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 30% | Draw 27% | Fenerbahçe 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Eyüpspor 1.34 / Fenerbahçe 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.993 / def 0.887 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.545 / def 0.812 | league avg home 1.661 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Fenerbahçe xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe FAQs
What time does Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Friday 20 December 2024 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Eyüpspor 1 - 1 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 17) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 30% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Eyüpspor and Fenerbahçe will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Eyüpspor's attack rating (0.99) and Fenerbahçe's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fenerbahçe's attack versus Eyüpspor's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Eyüpspor's last 16 games and Fenerbahçe's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
30%
3.32
27%
3.71
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.97
1.63
Fenerbahçe xG
3.32
30%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
20%
5.10
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
6%
16.94
11%
8.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.4 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.2 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.63 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eyüpspor come into this having played 16 games, going 7W 5D 4L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-L.
On the other side, Fenerbahçe sit at 2.38 PPG from 16 outings (12W 2D 2L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Fenerbahçe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of Eyüpspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Eyüpspor's home form reads 5W 1D 1L across their last 7 home games, a 2.29 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — Eyüpspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Fenerbahçe have taken 2.29 points per game from their last 7 away games (5W 1D 1L).
Goals in Recent Form
Eyüpspor are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.81 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Fenerbahçe in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Eyüpspor (Home) vs Fenerbahçe (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Eyüpspor
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
❓ Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe Form FAQs
What form are Eyüpspor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 7W 5D 4L in their last 16 games (1.62 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 12W 2D 2L in their last 16 (2.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Eyüpspor's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 2.29 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.29 PPG.
Have Eyüpspor or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from December 2024. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Sep 2026, when Fenerbahçe won Fenerbahçe 8-0 Eyüpspor.
Eyüpspor's record when hosting Fenerbahçe specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Eyüpspor
2
Draws
3
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Fenerbahçe?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Eyüpspor have won 0, Fenerbahçe have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Fenerbahçe 8-0 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 43%, Fenerbahçe 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Eyüpspor) and 57% (Fenerbahçe). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Fenerbahçe in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Eyüpspor and Fenerbahçe matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 43% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Eyüpspor and Fenerbahçe matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Eyüpspor's matches and 57% of Fenerbahçe's.
Do Eyüpspor and Fenerbahçe matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 71% of Fenerbahçe's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eyüpspor and Fenerbahçe share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eyüpspor and Fenerbahçe finished level at 1-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 17, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.34 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.63 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.99 / defence 0.89 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.54 / defence 0.81, drawn from 16/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 30% | Draw 27% | Fenerbahçe 43%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 50%, Fenerbahçe 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eyüpspor's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.62. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.