Bodrum FK 0-0 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bodrum FK face Alanyaspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bodrum FK host Alanyaspor at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 11). Kick-off is Sunday 3 November 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Bodrum FK — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Bodrum FK have posted 2W 0D 3L from their last 5 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Alanyaspor have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Alanyaspor have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bodrum FK at 1.00 PPG versus Alanyaspor's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Bodrum FK in-play tendencies (last 10 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 60% of games.
Alanyaspor in-play tendencies (last 10 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodrum FK 30% versus Alanyaspor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bodrum FK 30% | Alanyaspor 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodrum FK 1.08 xG and Alanyaspor 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodrum FK attack 0.776 / defence 1.022 | Alanyaspor attack 0.872 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.343. Bodrum FK's attack rating of 0.776 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.08. Data: built from Bodrum FK's last 10 games and Alanyaspor's last 48.
Result probabilities: Bodrum FK 32% | Draw 31% | Alanyaspor 37%. Fair-value odds: Bodrum FK 3.15 | Draw 3.23 | Alanyaspor 2.68. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alanyaspor are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bodrum FK 40% (last 5 home games) | Alanyaspor 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodrum FK vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 11 | Venue: Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 3 November 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodrum FK 32% | Draw 31% | Alanyaspor 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Bodrum FK 1.08 / Alanyaspor 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Bodrum FK attack 0.776 / def 1.022 | Alanyaspor attack 0.872 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.450 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Bodrum FK xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Alanyaspor xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bodrum FK vs Alanyaspor FAQs
What time does Bodrum FK vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Bodrum FK vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Bodrum FK vs Alanyaspor?
Bodrum FK 0 - 0 Alanyaspor.
Where is Bodrum FK vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu.
What competition is Bodrum FK vs Alanyaspor part of?
Bodrum FK vs Alanyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 11) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Bodrum FK vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Bodrum FK a 32% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodrum FK vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Bodrum FK and Alanyaspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Bodrum FK vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bodrum FK's attack at 0.78x the league average against Alanyaspor's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Bodrum FK's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bodrum FK's last 10 games and Alanyaspor's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
32%
3.15
31%
3.23
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Bodrum FK xG
Total xG
2.28
1.20
Alanyaspor xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
10%
10.43
13%
7.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 12.2 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bodrum FK vs Alanyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodrum FK vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Bodrum FK and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Bodrum FK and 1.20 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodrum FK vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 10 outings, Bodrum FK have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 3W 1D 6L record — W-W-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Alanyaspor's form line: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games, 0.90 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bodrum FK on 1.00 PPG, Alanyaspor on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bodrum FK have posted 1.50 PPG from their last 4 home games (2W 0D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Bodrum FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 1W 0D 3L from their last 4 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodrum FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bodrum FK are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 0.90 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodrum FK have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodrum FK
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
Bodrum FK (Home) vs Alanyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bodrum FK
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Bodrum FK vs Alanyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Bodrum FK and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Bodrum FK have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 games (1.00 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodrum FK at home or Alanyaspor away?
Bodrum FK's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodrum FK at home: 1.50 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Bodrum FK or Alanyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodrum FK have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Alanyaspor in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2024. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 6 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Bodrum FK
1
Draws
0
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Bodrum FK vs Alanyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bodrum FK and Alanyaspor?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Bodrum FK have won 1, Alanyaspor have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Bodrum FK and Alanyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 April 2025: Alanyaspor 0-1 Bodrum FK.
Who has won more matches between Bodrum FK and Alanyaspor?
Bodrum FK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bodrum FK see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodrum FK 50%, Alanyaspor 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bodrum FK) and 50% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Bodrum FK have failed to score in 50% of games; Alanyaspor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodrum FK home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bodrum FK vs Alanyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bodrum FK and Alanyaspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bodrum FK's recent matches and 25% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bodrum FK and Alanyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bodrum FK's recent games and 50% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bodrum FK and Alanyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Bodrum FK's recent matches and 100% of Alanyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bodrum FK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu, Regular Season - 11, as Bodrum FK and Alanyaspor drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodrum FK 1.08 xG and Alanyaspor 1.20 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bodrum FK fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Alanyaspor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodrum FK attack 0.78 / defence 1.02 against Alanyaspor attack 0.87 / defence 0.96, drawn from 10/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodrum FK 32% | Draw 31% | Alanyaspor 37%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodrum FK 30%, Alanyaspor 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodrum FK's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bodrum FK 1.00 PPG, Alanyaspor 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bodrum FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.