Beşiktaş 3-0 Yeni Malatyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beşiktaş vs Yeni Malatyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Beşiktaş and Yeni Malatyaspor meet at Vodafone Park in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Beşiktaş (all games): 2W 1D 0L across 3 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 2.33 PPG. Last five: W D W. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 3 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Beşiktaş have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Yeni Malatyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Yeni Malatyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.33 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Beşiktaş — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 100% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Yeni Malatyaspor — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Beşiktaş 0% | Yeni Malatyaspor 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Beşiktaş 33% | Yeni Malatyaspor 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.21 xG and Yeni Malatyaspor 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.114 / defence 0.914 | Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.843 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.074 / away 1.079. Data: 3 Beşiktaş games / 3 Yeni Malatyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 45% | Draw 30% | Yeni Malatyaspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Yeni Malatyaspor 4.00. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beşiktaş are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 0% | Yeni Malatyaspor 33% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Yeni Malatyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Vodafone Park • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 45% | Draw 30% | Yeni Malatyaspor 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Beşiktaş 1.21 / Yeni Malatyaspor 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.114 / def 0.914 | Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.843 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.074 / away 1.079 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Yeni Malatyaspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Yeni Malatyaspor kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Vodafone Park.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Beşiktaş 3 - 0 Yeni Malatyaspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Yeni Malatyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Vodafone Park.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Yeni Malatyaspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Yeni Malatyaspor is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 45% chance of winning, Yeni Malatyaspor a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Beşiktaş and Yeni Malatyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Yeni Malatyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Yeni Malatyaspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Beşiktaş and Yeni Malatyaspor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 2W-1D-0L in 3 | 2.33 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 0.00 | L5 W-D-W. Yeni Malatyaspor (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Beşiktaş's attack at 1.11x the league average against Yeni Malatyaspor's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Yeni Malatyaspor's attack (0.84x) against Beşiktaş's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
45%
2.23
30%
3.36
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.04
0.83
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
20%
5.13
8%
13.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 10.8 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.1 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Yeni Malatyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 0.83 for Yeni Malatyaspor, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Beşiktaş come into this having played 3 games, going 2W 1D 0L for 2.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Beşiktaş, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Yeni Malatyaspor sit at 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L), a run that reads L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Yeni Malatyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.33 PPG for Beşiktaş against 2.00 for Yeni Malatyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Yeni Malatyaspor are on 1.33 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; Yeni Malatyaspor in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Early Season
Yeni Malatyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Yeni Malatyaspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 games (2.33 PPG), while Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
Have Beşiktaş or Yeni Malatyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Yeni Malatyaspor in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Beşiktaş
1
Draws
0
Yeni Malatyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Yeni Malatyaspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 1, Yeni Malatyaspor have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Yeni Malatyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 22 January 2022, when Yeni Malatyaspor 1-1 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Yeni Malatyaspor?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Yeni Malatyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Beşiktaş) and 33% (Yeni Malatyaspor) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Beşiktaş and 33% for Yeni Malatyaspor.
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 100% of their matches; Yeni Malatyaspor in 67%; Beşiktaş have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Yeni Malatyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Yeni Malatyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 33% of Yeni Malatyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beşiktaş vs Yeni Malatyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Beşiktaş's recent games and 33% of Yeni Malatyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beşiktaş and Yeni Malatyaspor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Yeni Malatyaspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Beşiktaş run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Yeni Malatyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Yeni Malatyaspor 3-0 at Vodafone Park, Regular Season - 4, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.21 xG and Yeni Malatyaspor 0.83 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Beşiktaş beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Yeni Malatyaspor landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.11 / defence 0.91 against Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.84 / defence 1.01, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 45% | Draw 30% | Yeni Malatyaspor 25%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 33%, Yeni Malatyaspor 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 17%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 100% of the time, and duly kept one.
Yeni Malatyaspor's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 2.33 PPG, Yeni Malatyaspor 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beşiktaş win broke the near-deadlock. Beşiktaş scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Yeni Malatyaspor managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.