Beşiktaş 0-0 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Samsunspor make the trip to Tüpraş Stadyumu to face Beşiktaş in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 January 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Beşiktaş's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş's home record at Tüpraş Stadyumu: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Beşiktaş are significantly better at Tüpraş Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Samsunspor have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Samsunspor have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Samsunspor arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Beşiktaş lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2024, ended 2–0 with Beşiktaş winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Beşiktaş — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Samsunspor — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 55% versus Samsunspor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 46% | Samsunspor 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.35 xG and Samsunspor 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.014 / defence 1.092 | Samsunspor attack 0.997 / defence 0.823. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.179. Data: 56 Beşiktaş games / 56 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 36% | Draw 31% | Samsunspor 33%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Samsunspor 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Beşiktaş dominate the H2H record, yet Samsunspor are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Samsunspor (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 70% | Samsunspor 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Tüpraş Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Jan 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 36% | Draw 31% | Samsunspor 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG Beşiktaş 1.35 / Samsunspor 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.014 / def 1.092 | Samsunspor attack 0.997 / def 0.823 | league avg home 1.622 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Samsunspor xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 18 January 2025 at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor?
Beşiktaş 0 - 0 Samsunspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 36% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Beşiktaş and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Samsunspor?
Record (3 meetings): Beşiktaş 2W | Draws 1 | Samsunspor 0W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Samsunspor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Samsunspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Beşiktaş's attack at 1.01x the league average against Samsunspor's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Samsunspor's attack (1.00x) against Beşiktaş's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
36%
2.76
31%
3.24
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.64
1.28
Samsunspor xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
10%
9.98
9%
11.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.4 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.28 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Beşiktaş's recent record stands at 24W 14D 18L from 56 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Samsunspor, meanwhile, have gone 22W 13D 21L across 56 games — 1.41 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Beşiktaş against 1.41 for Samsunspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Beşiktaş have managed 16W 5D 7L from 28 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Samsunspor's away record stands at 7W 6D 15L across 28 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.41 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Samsunspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.32 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 24W 14D 18L in their last 56 games (1.54 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 22W 13D 21L in their last 56 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Samsunspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 1.89 PPG; Samsunspor away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Samsunspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Samsunspor in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beşiktaş have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Samsunspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Beşiktaş
3
Draws
1
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Samsunspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 2, Samsunspor have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Samsunspor last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Samsunspor 2-1 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Samsunspor?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 54%, Samsunspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Beşiktaş) and 46% (Samsunspor).
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Samsunspor in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Samsunspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 50% of Samsunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Beşiktaş's recent games and 46% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beşiktaş and Samsunspor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Samsunspor in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Beşiktaş's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Regular Season - 20, as Beşiktaş and Samsunspor drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.35 xG and Samsunspor 1.28 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Beşiktaş fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Samsunspor landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.01 / defence 1.09 against Samsunspor attack 1.00 / defence 0.82, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 36% | Draw 31% | Samsunspor 33%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 46%, Samsunspor 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Samsunspor's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.54 PPG, Samsunspor 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Samsunspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.