Beşiktaş 2-0 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 58% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Beşiktaş face Konyaspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tüpraş Stadyumu plays host to Beşiktaş versus Konyaspor in Süper Lig (matchday 26). Kick-off: Monday 19 February 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Beşiktaş have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Beşiktaş's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Beşiktaş are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Konyaspor (all games): 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Konyaspor's form when playing away from home: 0W 5D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Beşiktaş, 1.10 for Konyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Beşiktaş, 1 for Konyaspor and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2023, ended Beşiktaş 2–0 Konyaspor — a Beşiktaş win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Konyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 54% versus Konyaspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 59% | Konyaspor 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Beşiktaş surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Konyaspor have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Konyaspor surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Beşiktaş recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.73 xG and Konyaspor 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.011 / defence 0.873 | Konyaspor attack 0.739 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.192. Konyaspor's attack rating of 0.739 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.77. Data: built from Beşiktaş's last 61 games and Konyaspor's last 61.
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 58% | Draw 29% | Konyaspor 14%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 1.73 | Draw 3.49 | Konyaspor 7.29. The model has a clear lean to Beşiktaş (58%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beşiktaş at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Beşiktaş 40% (last 10 home games) | Konyaspor 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 26 | Venue: Tüpraş Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 19 February 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 58% | Draw 29% | Konyaspor 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Beşiktaş 1.73 / Konyaspor 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.011 / def 0.873 | Konyaspor attack 0.739 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Konyaspor xG
47%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor FAQs
What time does Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Monday 19 February 2024 at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor?
Beşiktaş 2 - 0 Konyaspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 26) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 58% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 14% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Beşiktaş and Konyaspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Beşiktaş's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Konyaspor's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (0.74x) against Beşiktaş's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from Beşiktaş's last 61 games and Konyaspor's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.4%), 2-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
58%
1.73
29%
3.49
14%
7.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.50
0.77
Konyaspor xG
1.73
58%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
7.29
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
27%
3.74
2%
41.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 10.9 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 0.77 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 61 outings, Beşiktaş have picked up 1.93 PPG on a 35W 13D 13L record — L-D-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Konyaspor's form line: 17W 25D 19L from 61 games, 1.25 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Beşiktaş are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Konyaspor.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Beşiktaş have posted 2.20 PPG from their last 30 home games (20W 6D 4L).
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 8W 13D 9L from their last 30 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.20 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
Beşiktaş (Home) vs Konyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Beşiktaş
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Beşiktaş and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 35W 13D 13L in their last 61 games (1.93 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 17W 25D 19L in their last 61 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Konyaspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 2.20 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Beşiktaş and Konyaspor, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 31 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Beşiktaş have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beşiktaş have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Beşiktaş
2
Draws
2
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Konyaspor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Beşiktaş have won 6, Konyaspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Konyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 January 2026: Beşiktaş 2-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Konyaspor?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 50%, Konyaspor 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Beşiktaş and 60% for Konyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Beşiktaş and Konyaspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 57% of Konyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Beşiktaş and Konyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Beşiktaş's matches and 60% of Konyaspor's.
Do Beşiktaş and Konyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 64% of Konyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beşiktaş cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Konyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Konyaspor 2-0 at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.73 xG and Konyaspor 0.77 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.01 / defence 0.87 against Konyaspor attack 0.74 / defence 1.18, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 58% | Draw 29% | Konyaspor 14%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 59%, Konyaspor 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Konyaspor's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.