Başakşehir 3-4 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Trabzonspor (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Başakşehir face Trabzonspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium plays host to Başakşehir versus Trabzonspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Monday 24 November 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Başakşehir (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Trabzonspor have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Trabzonspor are 0.80 PPG clear of Başakşehir in recent Süper Lig fixtures (1.90 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Başakşehir lead 2W to 4W over the last 7 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2025, ended 0–3 with Trabzonspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Başakşehir — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Trabzonspor — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 54% versus Trabzonspor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 54% | Trabzonspor 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 0.96 xG and Trabzonspor 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 0.876 / defence 0.896 | Trabzonspor attack 0.978 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.332. Data: 48 Başakşehir games / 48 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 27% | Draw 35% | Trabzonspor 38%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 3.70 | Draw 2.86 | Trabzonspor 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Başakşehir 60% | Trabzonspor 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 24 Nov 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 27% | Draw 35% | Trabzonspor 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Başakşehir 0.96 / Trabzonspor 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 0.876 / def 0.896 | Trabzonspor attack 0.978 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Trabzonspor xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 24 November 2025 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor?
Başakşehir 3 - 4 Trabzonspor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 27% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 38% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Başakşehir and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Trabzonspor?
Record (7 meetings): Başakşehir 2W | Draws 1 | Trabzonspor 4W.
What form are Başakşehir and Trabzonspor in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Trabzonspor (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Başakşehir's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Trabzonspor's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. Flip it around — Trabzonspor's attack (0.98x) against Başakşehir's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
27%
3.66
35%
2.86
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.13
1.17
Trabzonspor xG
3.66
27%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
8%
11.77
14%
6.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 13.9 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.17 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Başakşehir come into this having played 48 games, going 19W 10D 19L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Trabzonspor sit at 1.58 PPG from 48 outings (20W 16D 12L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Başakşehir against 1.58 for Trabzonspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Başakşehir's home form reads 10W 7D 6L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, Trabzonspor have taken 1.13 points per game from 23 outings (6W 8D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trabzonspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Başakşehir are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.58 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Trabzonspor in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 19W 10D 19L in their last 48 games (1.40 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 20W 16D 12L in their last 48 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Trabzonspor away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.61 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trabzonspor won 0-3 on 15 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Başakşehir have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Trabzonspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Başakşehir
2
Draws
6
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Trabzonspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Trabzonspor 2-1 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 56%, Trabzonspor 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Başakşehir) and 44% (Trabzonspor).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Trabzonspor in 39%; Trabzonspor in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Trabzonspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 52% of Trabzonspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Başakşehir's recent games and 44% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Başakşehir 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Başakşehir 3-4 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 0.96 xG and Trabzonspor 1.17 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Başakşehir beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Trabzonspor outscored their 1.17 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 0.88 / defence 0.90 against Trabzonspor attack 0.98 / defence 0.86, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 27% | Draw 35% | Trabzonspor 38%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 54%, Trabzonspor 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.40 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.