Başakşehir 2-0 İstanbulspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Başakşehir at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Başakşehir vs İstanbulspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
İstanbulspor make the trip to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu to face Başakşehir in Süper Lig (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Saturday 3 February 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Başakşehir have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Başakşehir have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
İstanbulspor's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
İstanbulspor's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Başakşehir's favour (1.80 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Başakşehir edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 17 Sep 2023, ended Başakşehir 2–0 İstanbulspor — a Başakşehir win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Başakşehir — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
İstanbulspor — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 39% versus İstanbulspor 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 41% | İstanbulspor 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.78 xG and İstanbulspor 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.098 / defence 0.941 | İstanbulspor attack 0.817 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.485 / away 1.195. Data: built from Başakşehir's last 59 games and İstanbulspor's last 59.
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 56% | Draw 27% | İstanbulspor 17%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.80 | Draw 3.67 | İstanbulspor 5.87. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (56%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Başakşehir 50% (last 10 home games) | İstanbulspor 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs İstanbulspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 24 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 3 February 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 56% | Draw 27% | İstanbulspor 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Başakşehir 1.78 / İstanbulspor 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.098 / def 0.941 | İstanbulspor attack 0.817 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.485 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
0.92
İstanbulspor xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Başakşehir vs İstanbulspor FAQs
What time does Başakşehir vs İstanbulspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs İstanbulspor kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs İstanbulspor?
Başakşehir 2 - 0 İstanbulspor.
Where is Başakşehir vs İstanbulspor being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs İstanbulspor part of?
Başakşehir vs İstanbulspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 24) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs İstanbulspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 56% chance of winning, İstanbulspor a 17% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs İstanbulspor?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Başakşehir and İstanbulspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Başakşehir vs İstanbulspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Başakşehir's attack at 1.10x the league average against İstanbulspor's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — İstanbulspor's attack (0.82x) against Başakşehir's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from Başakşehir's last 59 games and İstanbulspor's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
56%
1.80
27%
3.67
17%
5.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.70
0.92
İstanbulspor xG
1.80
56%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
5.87
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
17%
5.96
Win to Nil
22%
4.50
3%
34.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Başakşehir vs İstanbulspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs İstanbulspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and İstanbulspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Başakşehir and 0.92 for İstanbulspor, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs İstanbulspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Başakşehir's recent record stands at 26W 14D 19L from 59 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-W in the last five.
İstanbulspor, meanwhile, have gone 15W 10D 34L across 59 games — 0.93 PPG, with D-D-W-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Başakşehir by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over İstanbulspor heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Başakşehir have managed 17W 4D 8L from their last 29 home games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
İstanbulspor's away record stands at 7W 4D 18L across their last 29 away games, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Başakşehir are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; İstanbulspor are on 1.10 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
İstanbulspor
Blended
Başakşehir (Home) vs İstanbulspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Başakşehir
Blended
İstanbulspor
Blended
❓ Başakşehir vs İstanbulspor Form FAQs
What form are Başakşehir and İstanbulspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 26W 14D 19L in their last 59 games (1.56 PPG), while İstanbulspor have gone 15W 10D 34L in their last 59 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or İstanbulspor away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.90 PPG; İstanbulspor away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or İstanbulspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, İstanbulspor in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 3 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Başakşehir have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Başakşehir have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against İstanbulspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Başakşehir
0
Draws
1
İstanbulspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Başakşehir vs İstanbulspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and İstanbulspor?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Başakşehir have won 3, İstanbulspor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and İstanbulspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 February 2024: Başakşehir 2-0 İstanbulspor.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and İstanbulspor?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
İstanbulspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 34%, İstanbulspor 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Başakşehir) and 55% (İstanbulspor).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Başakşehir have failed to score in 28% of games; İstanbulspor in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / İstanbulspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Başakşehir vs İstanbulspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Başakşehir and İstanbulspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 45% of İstanbulspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Başakşehir and İstanbulspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Başakşehir's recent games and 55% of İstanbulspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and İstanbulspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 74% of İstanbulspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Başakşehir cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over İstanbulspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat İstanbulspor 2-0 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.78 xG and İstanbulspor 0.92 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. İstanbulspor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.10 / defence 0.94 against İstanbulspor attack 0.82 / defence 1.09, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 56% | Draw 27% | İstanbulspor 17%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 41%, İstanbulspor 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
İstanbulspor's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.93. Form held, and they took the win. Başakşehir (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. İstanbulspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.