Başakşehir 3-0 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Başakşehir vs Hatayspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Hatayspor travel to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu to take on Başakşehir. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 April 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Başakşehir stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Başakşehir have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Hatayspor have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Hatayspor have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Başakşehir 1.70 PPG, Hatayspor 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Başakşehir register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Hatayspor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Başakşehir have won 1, Hatayspor 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2021, ended 3–0 with Başakşehir winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Hatayspor in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 54% versus Hatayspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 52% | Hatayspor 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.71 xG and Hatayspor 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 0.875 / defence 1.039 | Hatayspor attack 0.813 / defence 1.586. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.237. Hatayspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.586 — this is suppressing Başakşehir's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Başakşehir games / 33 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 51% | Draw 28% | Hatayspor 21%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Hatayspor 4.76. Başakşehir hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Başakşehir at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 60% | Hatayspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 51% | Draw 28% | Hatayspor 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Başakşehir 1.71 / Hatayspor 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 0.875 / def 1.039 | Hatayspor attack 0.813 / def 1.586 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Hatayspor xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Hatayspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Hatayspor kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 24 April 2022 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Hatayspor?
Başakşehir 3 - 0 Hatayspor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Hatayspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 51% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Başakşehir and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Hatayspor?
Record (1 meetings): Başakşehir 1W | Draws 0 | Hatayspor 0W.
What form are Başakşehir and Hatayspor in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Hatayspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Başakşehir's attack at 0.88x the league average against Hatayspor's defence at 1.59x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hatayspor's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
51%
1.96
28%
3.57
21%
4.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.76
1.05
Hatayspor xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
4.75
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
18%
5.55
Win to Nil
18%
5.59
4%
26.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.4 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.05 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Hatayspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Başakşehir come into this having played 33 games, going 16W 6D 11L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-D.
On the other side, Hatayspor sit at 1.48 PPG from 33 outings (14W 7D 12L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Başakşehir on 1.64 PPG, Hatayspor on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Başakşehir's home form reads 10W 1D 5L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Hatayspor have taken 1.12 points per game from 16 outings (5W 3D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Başakşehir are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 1.52 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Current Season
Hatayspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 16W 6D 11L in their last 33 games (1.64 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 14W 7D 12L in their last 33 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Hatayspor away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.94 PPG; Hatayspor away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Hatayspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Hatayspor in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Başakşehir have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Dec 2021, when Başakşehir won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Hatayspor specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Başakşehir
1
Draws
0
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Hatayspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 7, Hatayspor have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Hatayspor 2-4 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Hatayspor?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 50%, Hatayspor 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Başakşehir) and 44% (Hatayspor).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Hatayspor in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 44% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Başakşehir's recent games and 44% of Hatayspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Başakşehir run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Hatayspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Hatayspor 3-0 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 34, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.71 xG and Hatayspor 1.05 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Başakşehir beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hatayspor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 0.88 / defence 1.04 against Hatayspor attack 0.81 / defence 1.59, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 51% | Draw 28% | Hatayspor 21%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 52%, Hatayspor 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hatayspor's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.64 PPG, Hatayspor 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Hatayspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.