Başakşehir 1-0 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 56% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Başakşehir vs Hatayspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Hatayspor travel to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu to take on Başakşehir in Süper Lig (matchday 15). The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Başakşehir stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Başakşehir have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Başakşehir are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Hatayspor have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Hatayspor have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Başakşehir 0.90 PPG, Hatayspor 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Başakşehir hold a clear advantage across the 4 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Hatayspor and 1 draw.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 30 Apr 2023, ended Başakşehir 3–0 Hatayspor — a Başakşehir win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Başakşehir and goals — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches and an average of 3.8 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Hatayspor in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 36% versus Hatayspor 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 40% | Hatayspor 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.98 xG and Hatayspor 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.176 / defence 1.043 | Hatayspor attack 0.859 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.586 / away 1.265. Data: built from Başakşehir's last 50 games and Hatayspor's last 50.
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 56% | Draw 23% | Hatayspor 21%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.78 | Draw 4.36 | Hatayspor 4.82. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Başakşehir at 56% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Başakşehir 3 wins from 4 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Başakşehir's last 10 home games and Hatayspor's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Başakşehir 50% (last 10 home games) | Hatayspor 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 15 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 10 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 56% | Draw 23% | Hatayspor 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Başakşehir 1.98 / Hatayspor 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.176 / def 1.043 | Hatayspor attack 0.859 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.586 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Hatayspor xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Başakşehir vs Hatayspor FAQs
What time does Başakşehir vs Hatayspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Hatayspor kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 10 December 2023 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Hatayspor?
Başakşehir 1 - 0 Hatayspor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Hatayspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Hatayspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 15) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 56% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Başakşehir and Hatayspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Başakşehir vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Başakşehir's attack at 1.18x the league average against Hatayspor's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hatayspor's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Başakşehir's last 50 games and Hatayspor's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
56%
1.78
23%
4.36
21%
4.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
3.11
1.13
Hatayspor xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
4.82
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
14%
7.24
Win to Nil
18%
5.52
3%
34.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.0 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Başakşehir vs Hatayspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.13 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Hatayspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Başakşehir come into this having played 50 games, going 21W 11D 18L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, Hatayspor sit at 0.82 PPG from 50 outings (10W 11D 29L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Başakşehir carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Başakşehir's home form reads 14W 3D 7L across their last 24 home games, a 1.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Hatayspor have taken 0.54 points per game from their last 24 away games (3W 4D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Başakşehir are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 0.86 scored and 2.08 conceded.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Hatayspor
Blended
Başakşehir (Home) vs Hatayspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Başakşehir
Blended
Hatayspor
Blended
❓ Başakşehir vs Hatayspor Form FAQs
What form are Başakşehir and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 21W 11D 18L in their last 50 games (1.48 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 10W 11D 29L in their last 50 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Hatayspor away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.88 PPG; Hatayspor away: 0.54 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Hatayspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Hatayspor in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from December 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 3 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Başakşehir have won each of the latest 5 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Dec 2021, when Başakşehir won Hatayspor 0-3 Başakşehir.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Hatayspor specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Başakşehir
1
Draws
0
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Başakşehir vs Hatayspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Hatayspor?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Başakşehir have won 7, Hatayspor have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Hatayspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 May 2025: Hatayspor 2-4 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Hatayspor?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Başakşehir 33% BTTS, Hatayspor 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 46% for Başakşehir and 75% for Hatayspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Hatayspor in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Başakşehir vs Hatayspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Başakşehir and Hatayspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 33% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Başakşehir and Hatayspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Başakşehir's matches and 75% of Hatayspor's.
Do Başakşehir and Hatayspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 76% of Hatayspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Başakşehir edge out Hatayspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Hatayspor 1-0 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 15, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.98 xG and Hatayspor 1.13 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Başakşehir fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Hatayspor landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.18 / defence 1.04 against Hatayspor attack 0.86 / defence 1.06, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 56% | Draw 23% | Hatayspor 21%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 40%, Hatayspor 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hatayspor's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Başakşehir (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Hatayspor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.